Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Spartans SOU @ SJSU

SOUTHERN

JAGUARSSOU

2-3  |  Road

66
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 10:00 PM ET
Provident Credit Union Event Center
View Odds Details →

SAN JOSÉ STATE

SPARTANSSJSU

1-3  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
📊
SPARTANS
0%
JAGUARS --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (San José State)
JaguarsSOU (-3.5) 0 SpartansSJSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

30.9%

Spartans Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SJSU -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SJSU)

SOU By 1-7 points

18.6%

SOU By 8-14 points

8.0%

SJSU By 1-7 points

27.2%

SJSU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
70
SOUTHERN
75
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Simulated Score
65
SOUTHERN
78
SAN JOSÉ STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Spartans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 SOU @ SJSU 66 - 80
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +53.1% more
Southern: 12.8 vs San José State: 6.0
Blocks (L5) +41.4% more
Southern: 4.0 vs San José State: 2.3
Assists (L5) +27.2% more
Southern: 18.8 vs San José State: 13.7
Turnovers (L5) +16.0% more
Southern: 14.4 vs San José State: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SOU Score 70.0 66
SJSU Score 75.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.3 / 37.9 44.0 / 25.0
Assists 13.7 / 18.8 13.0 / 13.0
Blocks 2.3 / 4.0 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 49.8 / 50.1 47.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 66.0 / 69.8 76.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 38.1 / 42.3 40.0 / 31.0
Steals 6.0 / 12.8 6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.1 / 14.4 15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SOU Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
SJSU
9-24-0 (27.3%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SOU
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 1.7 ATS +/-: -1.6
SJSU Advantage
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -6.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SOU
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +4.7
SJSU
21-11-0
O: 65.6% / U: 34.4% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SJSU
SOU
SJSU
SOU
ML
73% 24-9
67% 22-11
62% 20-12
70% 21-9
ATS
73% 24-9
64% 21-12
62% 20-12
70% 21-9
TTL
61% 20-13
42% 14-19
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 19 hours, 35 minutes ago
Jason Kidd Nears ESPN Studio Analyst Role for NBA Countdown
theathleticuk 3 days, 1 hour ago
Kentucky's AP Poll Exit Exposes Uphill Battle for National Respe…
yahoo 3 days, 1 hour ago
Kentucky Appeals Court Ruling Shakes Up Eligibility for Mark Mit…
cbssports 6 days ago
Vanderbilt Basketball: Three Standout Performers from Exhibition…
headtopics 1 week, 4 days ago