Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Purple Eagles @ Blue Devils NIA @ DUKE

NIAGARA

PURPLE EAGLESNIA

2-2  |  Road

42
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Cameron Indoor Stadium
View Odds Details →

DUKE

BLUE DEVILSDUKE

5-0  |  Home

100
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE EAGLES
100%
📊
BLUE DEVILS
0%
PURPLE EAGLES --
BLUE DEVILS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (Duke)
Purple EaglesNIA (-3.5) 0 Blue DevilsDUKE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Eagles Cover

5.5%

Blue Devils Cover

94.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around DUKE -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

NIA By 1-7 points

4.0%

NIA By 8-14 points

0.8%

DUKE By 1-7 points

13.7%

DUKE By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
60
NIAGARA
76
DUKE
Simulated Score
58
NIAGARA
85
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blue Devils Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Devils Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blue Devils (+39.5) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim Blue Devils (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u146.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 NIA @ DUKE 42 - 100
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +102.4% more
Duke: 5.1 vs Niagara: 2.5
Rebounding (L5) +43.0% more
Duke: 43.5 vs Niagara: 30.4
Assists (L5) +35.9% more
Duke: 19.5 vs Niagara: 14.4
Field Goal % (L5) +5.5%
Duke: 50.1% vs Niagara: 44.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NIA Score 60.0 42
DUKE Score 76.0 100
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.9 / 41.1 52.0 / 24.0
Assists 19.5 / 14.4 24.0 / 11.0
Blocks 5.1 / 2.5 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 50.1 / 44.7 58.0 / 27.0
Free Throw % 71.9 / 72.9 79.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 43.5 / 30.4 40.0 / 20.0
Steals 6.7 / 6.4 10.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 9.6 / 10.8 9.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NIA
8-22-0 (26.7%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
DUKE Advantage
35-3-0 (92.1%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NIA
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: -7.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
DUKE Advantage
20-18-0 (52.6%)
Margin: 18.0 ATS +/-: +1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
NIA
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: -0.7
DUKE
14-24-0
O: 36.8% / U: 63.2% Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
NIA
DUKE
NIA
ML
71% 27-11
55% 16-13
73% 24-9
72% 21-8
ATS
79% 30-8
69% 20-9
73% 24-9
72% 21-8
TTL
47% 18-20
55% 16-13
100% 33-0
100% 29-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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