Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Privateers @ Bulldogs UNO @ FRES

NEW ORLEANS

PRIVATEERSUNO

2-2  |  Road

76
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 9:00 PM ET
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FRESNO STATE

BULLDOGSFRES

4-2  |  Home

85
AI Model Win Probability
PRIVATEERS
0%
📊
BULLDOGS
100%
PRIVATEERS --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-36.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +36.0 points (New Orleans)
PrivateersUNO (-3.5) 0 BulldogsFRES (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Privateers Cover

100.0%

Bulldogs Cover

0.0%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNO -36.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNO)

UNO By 1-7 points

0.2%

UNO By 8-14 points

1.4%

FRES By 1-7 points

0.0%

FRES By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
100
NEW ORLEANS
64
FRESNO STATE
Simulated Score
65
NEW ORLEANS
78
FRESNO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Privateers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Privateers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 UNO @ FRES 76 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +23.2% more
New Orleans: 3.1 vs Fresno State: 2.4
Rebounding (L5) +14.8% more
New Orleans: 39.1 vs Fresno State: 33.3
Free Throw % (L5) +5.5%
New Orleans: 71.7% vs Fresno State: 66.2%
Steals (L5) +81.4% more
Fresno State: 9.3 vs New Orleans: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNO Score 100.0 76
FRES Score 64.0 85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.2 / 37.7 33.0 / 24.0
Assists 14.0 / 13.7 13.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.4 / 3.1 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.9 / 42.5 47.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 66.2 / 71.7 79.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 33.3 / 39.1 36.0 / 36.0
Steals 9.3 / 5.1 6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 14.4 15.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
7%TICKETS93%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
93%MONEY7%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNO Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: +3.4
FRES
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNO
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: +3.4
FRES Advantage
21-10-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: +2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UNO
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +2.0
FRES
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -4.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FRES
UNO
FRES
UNO
ML
59% 19-13
52% 16-15
74% 23-8
57% 17-13
ATS
75% 24-8
52% 16-15
74% 23-8
57% 17-13
TTL
56% 18-14
58% 18-13
100% 31-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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