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PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

6-9  |  Road

127
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 10:00 PM ET
Chase Center
View Odds Details →

GOLDEN STATE

WARRIORSGS

9-8  |  Home

123
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
📊
WARRIORS
100%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Portland)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 WarriorsGS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

93.3%

Warriors Cover

6.7%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around POR -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

POR By 1-7 points

15.3%

POR By 8-14 points

25.3%

GS By 1-7 points

4.8%

GS By 8-14 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
125
PORTLAND
110
GOLDEN STATE
Simulated Score
107
PORTLAND
118
GOLDEN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Trail Blazers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Warriors Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Trail Blazers (-9.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Warriors (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u237.5 Loss
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim u237.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 13, 2026 POR @ GS 97 - 119
Dec 14, 2025 GS @ POR 131 - 136
Nov 21, 2025 POR @ GS 127 - 123
Oct 24, 2025 GS @ POR 119 - 139
Oct 14, 2025 GS @ POR 118 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +35.1% more
Golden State: 10.3 vs Portland: 7.6
Turnovers (L5) +20.0% more
Golden State: 19.3 vs Portland: 16.1
Free Throw % (L5) +4.9%
Golden State: 79.0% vs Portland: 74.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.4%
Golden State: 34.1% vs Portland: 29.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 125.0 127
GS Score 110.0 123
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 29.7 40.0 / 36.0
Assists 25.7 / 24.4 29.0 / 31.0
Blocks 4.5 / 4.7 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 42.7 / 43.5 48.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 79.0 / 74.2 87.0 / 84.0
Rebounding 47.2 / 50.7 32.0 / 52.0
Steals 10.3 / 7.6 14.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 19.3 / 16.1 14.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
25%MONEY75%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
14%MONEY86%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR Advantage
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
GS
38-46-0 (45.2%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
GS
36-48-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
GS
49-35-0
O: 58.3% / U: 41.7% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GS
POR
GS
POR
ML
55% 95-79
53% 56-49
58% 49-35
55% 49-40
ATS
58% 101-73
62% 65-39-1
58% 49-35
55% 49-40
TTL
77% 134-40
56% 58-46-1
100% 84-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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