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MORGAN STATE

BEARSMORG

1-4  |  Road

56
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Chartway Arena
View Odds Details →

OLD DOMINION

MONARCHSODU

2-3  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
0%
📊
MONARCHS
100%
BEARS --
MONARCHS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
MORGAN STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Morgan State)
BearsMORG (-3.5) 0 MonarchsODU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bears Cover

81.6%

Monarchs Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MORG -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MORG)

MORG By 1-7 points

24.3%

MORG By 8-14 points

26.8%

ODU By 1-7 points

12.2%

ODU By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
66
MORGAN STATE
57
OLD DOMINION
Simulated Score
62
MORGAN STATE
75
OLD DOMINION
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bears Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Monarchs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bears (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Monarchs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 MORG @ ODU 56 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +4.6%
Morgan State: 76.1% vs Old Dominion: 71.4%
Field Goal % (L5) +1.8%
Morgan State: 43.4% vs Old Dominion: 41.6%
Blocks (L5) +85.4% more
Old Dominion: 4.0 vs Morgan State: 2.1
Turnovers (L5) +18.9% more
Old Dominion: 13.2 vs Morgan State: 11.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MORG Score 66.0 56
ODU Score 57.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 29.3 37.0 / 17.0
Assists 14.6 / 12.4 17.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.0 / 2.1 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 41.6 / 43.4 48.0 / 36.0
Free Throw % 71.4 / 76.1 74.0 / 55.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 32.2 42.0 / 36.0
Steals 5.4 / 5.7 7.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 11.1 7.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
9%MONEY91%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MORG Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
ODU
12-21-0 (36.4%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MORG Advantage
14-12-1 (53.8%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -1.1
ODU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MORG
16-11-0
O: 59.3% / U: 40.7% Total +/-: +2.5
ODU
21-10-1
O: 67.7% / U: 32.3% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ODU
MORG
ODU
MORG
ML
52% 17-16
50% 14-14
67% 22-11
58% 14-10
ATS
70% 23-10
50% 14-14
67% 22-11
58% 14-10
TTL
70% 23-10
50% 14-14
100% 33-0
100% 24-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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