NORTHWESTERN STATE
DEMONSNWST
1-5 | Road
72
GRAND CANYON
LOPESGCU
3-2 | Home
85
AI Model Win Probability
DEMONS
100%
LOPES
0%
DEMONS
--
LOPES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
121.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
GRAND CANYON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Grand Canyon)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GCU -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GCU)
NWST By 1-7 points
0.3%
NWST By 8-14 points
0.0%
GCU By 1-7 points
2.2%
GCU By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Northwestern State
47
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Grand Canyon
74
GRAND CANYON
Simulated Score
Northwestern State
61
NORTHWESTERN STATE
Grand Canyon
82
GRAND CANYON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Lopes
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lopes
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lopes (-17.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
Lopes (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u146.5
Loss
Proj Total: 121.0
D
Sim
u146.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 21, 2025
NWST @ GCU
72 - 85
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+65.0% more
Grand Canyon: 4.5
vs
Northwestern State: 2.7
Rebounding (L5)
+22.9% more
Grand Canyon: 37.8
vs
Northwestern State: 30.7
Turnovers (L5)
+16.0% more
Grand Canyon: 13.1
vs
Northwestern State: 11.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.3%
Grand Canyon: 81.6%
vs
Northwestern State: 74.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NWST Score
47.0
72
GCU Score
74.0
85
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.9 / 35.3
32.0 / 30.0
Assists
13.3 / 13.2
15.0 / 12.0
Blocks
4.5 / 2.7
2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
41.4 / 43.2
49.0 / 48.0
Free Throw %
81.6 / 74.2
77.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
37.8 / 30.7
41.0 / 17.0
Steals
7.2 / 6.7
3.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 11.3
12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NWST
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
GCU
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 7.0
ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NWST
Advantage
16-13-1
(55.2%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: +0.4
GCU
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 7.0
ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NWST
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -2.3
GCU
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1%
Total +/-: -3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GCU
NWST
GCU
NWST
ML
66%
21-11
68%
21-10
68%
21-10
77%
23-7
ATS
72%
23-9
68%
21-10
68%
21-10
77%
23-7
TTL
44%
14-18
39%
12-19
100%
31-0
100%
30-0
