AUSTIN PEAY
GOVERNORSAPSU
3-3 | Road
75
TULSA
GOLDEN HURRICANETLSA
4-1 | Home
84
AI Model Win Probability
GOVERNORS
100%
GOLDEN HURRICANE
0%
GOVERNORS
--
GOLDEN HURRICANE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
TULSA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Tulsa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TLSA -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TLSA)
APSU By 1-7 points
12.2%
APSU By 8-14 points
4.0%
TLSA By 1-7 points
24.3%
TLSA By 8-14 points
26.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Austin Peay
71
AUSTIN PEAY
Tulsa
80
TULSA
Simulated Score
Austin Peay
68
AUSTIN PEAY
Tulsa
75
TULSA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Golden Hurricane
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Golden Hurricane
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Golden Hurricane (-8.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim
Golden Hurricane (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 21, 2025
APSU @ TLSA
75 - 84
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+9.2% more
Tulsa: 15.4
vs
Austin Peay: 14.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.0%
Tulsa: 34.3%
vs
Austin Peay: 29.3%
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.1%
Tulsa: 44.9%
vs
Austin Peay: 40.8%
Steals (L5)
+37.1% more
Austin Peay: 10.0
vs
Tulsa: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
APSU Score
71.0
75
TLSA Score
80.0
84
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.3 / 29.3
41.0 / 42.0
Assists
15.4 / 14.1
21.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.3 / 2.5
3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
44.9 / 40.8
48.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
72.7 / 74.4
94.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
37.9 / 39.8
32.0 / 30.0
Steals
6.3 / 10.0
4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.1 / 12.7
11.0 / 9.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
APSU
22-9-0
(71.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
TLSA
Advantage
30-8-0
(79.0%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +4.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
APSU
14-14-1
(50.0%)
Margin: 8.4
ATS +/-: +1.3
TLSA
Advantage
20-15-1
(57.1%)
Margin: 11.4
ATS +/-: +4.3
⚖️ Over/Under
APSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: +2.2
TLSA
24-12-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3%
Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TLSA
APSU
TLSA
APSU
ML
66%
25-13
53%
16-14
64%
23-13
59%
16-11
ATS
74%
28-10
57%
17-13
64%
23-13
59%
16-11
TTL
58%
22-16
57%
17-13
100%
36-0
100%
27-0