INDIANA
PACERSIND
2-13 | Road
109
CLEVELAND
CAVALIERSCLE
10-6 | Home
120
AI Model Win Probability
PACERS
100%
CAVALIERS
0%
PACERS
--
CAVALIERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
251.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
IND By 1-7 points
24.3%
IND By 8-14 points
13.7%
CLE By 1-7 points
26.2%
CLE By 8-14 points
16.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Indiana
125
INDIANA
Cleveland
126
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Indiana
109
INDIANA
Cleveland
112
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cavaliers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cavaliers (+15.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Cavaliers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o241.0
Loss
Proj Total: 251.0
D
Sim
u241.0
Win
Proj Total: 221.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
IND @ CLE
108 - 117
Jan 6, 2026
CLE @ IND
120 - 116
Dec 1, 2025
CLE @ IND
135 - 119
Nov 21, 2025
IND @ CLE
109 - 120
May 13, 2025
IND @ CLE
114 - 105
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+11.8% more
Cleveland: 6.6
vs
Indiana: 5.9
Blocks (L5)
+8.3% more
Cleveland: 6.0
vs
Indiana: 5.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+1.9%
Cleveland: 47.2%
vs
Indiana: 45.3%
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.5%
Indiana: 79.6%
vs
Cleveland: 69.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
IND Score
125.0
109
CLE Score
126.0
120
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.9 / 33.9
37.0 / 30.0
Assists
24.0 / 24.7
28.0 / 25.0
Blocks
6.0 / 5.5
8.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
47.2 / 45.3
48.0 / 42.0
Free Throw %
69.1 / 79.6
78.0 / 92.0
Rebounding
43.0 / 42.0
52.0 / 43.0
Steals
6.6 / 5.9
5.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
14.5 / 16.1
14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CLE
Advantage
60-40-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND
Advantage
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
CLE
40-60-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 2.8
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0%
Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
IND
CLE
IND
ML
60%
69-46
48%
47-50
56%
55-44
54%
45-38
ATS
67%
75-37-3
59%
57-40
56%
55-44
54%
45-38
TTL
59%
68-47
54%
52-45
100%
99-0
100%
83-0
Contextual Game News
Haliburton Returns to Hilton Coliseum as Pacers Defeat Timberwol…
JJ Redick Sets Record Straight on Lakers 'Pieces Fit' Comment Af…
Cavs 2026-27 Viewing Guide: DAZN, National TV, and Free Over-the…
Stephen A. Smith Sounds Alarm: James Dolan Could Derail Knicks' …
From Diamond to Broadcast Booth: Detroit's Legacy of Great Athle…