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WASHINGTON

WIZARDSWSH

1-13  |  Road

110
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

10-5  |  Home

140
AI Model Win Probability
WIZARDS
100%
📊
RAPTORS
0%
WIZARDS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Toronto)
WizardsWSH (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wizards Cover

27.4%

Raptors Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

WSH By 1-7 points

16.9%

WSH By 8-14 points

6.8%

TOR By 1-7 points

26.8%

TOR By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
105
WASHINGTON
111
TORONTO
Simulated Score
112
WASHINGTON
115
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raptors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raptors (+14) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Raptors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u238.0 Loss
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Sim u238.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 28, 2026 TOR @ WSH 134 - 125
Dec 26, 2025 TOR @ WSH 117 - 138
Nov 21, 2025 WSH @ TOR 110 - 140
Oct 12, 2025 TOR @ WSH 113 - 112
Mar 24, 2025 TOR @ WSH 112 - 104
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +47.5% more
Toronto: 9.5 vs Washington: 6.5
Assists (L5) +26.1% more
Toronto: 29.7 vs Washington: 23.6
Field Goal % (L5) +5.3%
Toronto: 52.3% vs Washington: 47.0%
Blocks (L5) +17.8% more
Washington: 5.2 vs Toronto: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 105.0 110
TOR Score 111.0 140
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.3 / 38.9 50.0 / 29.0
Assists 29.7 / 23.6 36.0 / 26.0
Blocks 4.3 / 5.2 4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 52.3 / 47.0 58.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 77.2 / 76.7 77.0 / 83.0
Rebounding 39.2 / 39.5 48.0 / 29.0
Steals 9.5 / 6.5 13.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.2 / 15.4 15.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
17-65-0 (20.7%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
33-49-0 (40.2%)
Margin: -12.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
TOR Advantage
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
47-35-0
O: 57.3% / U: 42.7% Total +/-: +3.3
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
WSH
TOR
WSH
ML
55% 57-47
70% 112-49
55% 48-39
47% 39-44
ATS
61% 62-40-2
69% 111-49-1
55% 48-39
47% 39-44
TTL
60% 62-42
74% 119-41-1
100% 87-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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