MIAMI
HEATMIA
9-6 | Road
143
CHICAGO
BULLSCHI
8-6 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
HEAT
0%
BULLS
100%
HEAT
--
BULLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
233.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MIA -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
MIA By 1-7 points
21.6%
MIA By 8-14 points
27.4%
CHI By 1-7 points
9.3%
CHI By 8-14 points
2.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Miami
122
MIAMI
Chicago
111
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
Miami
108
MIAMI
Chicago
112
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bulls
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Heat (-2.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Bulls (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u249.5
Loss
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Sim
u249.5
Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 1, 2026
CHI @ MIA
91 - 134
Jan 31, 2026
CHI @ MIA
125 - 118
Jan 29, 2026
MIA @ CHI
116 - 113
Nov 21, 2025
MIA @ CHI
143 - 107
Apr 16, 2025
MIA @ CHI
109 - 90
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.8%
Miami: 78.0%
vs
Chicago: 74.3%
Blocks (L5)
+52.1% more
Chicago: 6.7
vs
Miami: 4.4
Steals (L5)
+8.9% more
Chicago: 8.2
vs
Miami: 7.5
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.0%
Chicago: 46.9%
vs
Miami: 44.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MIA Score
122.0
143
CHI Score
111.0
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.4 / 38.5
28.0 / 37.0
Assists
31.7 / 29.7
26.0 / 35.0
Blocks
6.7 / 4.4
13.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
46.9 / 44.9
41.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
74.3 / 78.0
75.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
45.9 / 46.1
39.0 / 53.0
Steals
8.2 / 7.5
5.0 / 13.0
Turnovers
14.4 / 14.0
18.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHI
31-51-0
(37.8%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
CHI
39-43-0
(47.6%)
Margin: -5.2
ATS +/-: -1.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
CHI
38-44-0
O: 46.3% / U: 53.7%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
MIA
CHI
MIA
ML
56%
54-42
48%
46-50
57%
46-35
59%
48-34
ATS
65%
62-33-1
51%
49-47
57%
46-35
59%
48-34
TTL
58%
56-40
59%
57-39
100%
81-0
100%
82-0
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