Home / NBA Projections NBA / Pelicans @ Mavericks NO @ DAL

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

2-13  |  Road

115
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 8:30 PM ET
American Airlines Center
View Odds Details →

DALLAS

MAVERICKSDAL

4-12  |  Home

118
AI Model Win Probability
PELICANS
0%
📊
MAVERICKS
100%
PELICANS --
MAVERICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
199.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (New Orleans)
PelicansNO (-3.5) 0 MavericksDAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Pelicans Cover

98.2%

Mavericks Cover

1.8%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around NO -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

NO By 1-7 points

6.8%

NO By 8-14 points

16.9%

DAL By 1-7 points

1.4%

DAL By 8-14 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
110
NEW ORLEANS
89
DALLAS
Simulated Score
112
NEW ORLEANS
115
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mavericks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Pelicans (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Mavericks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 199.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 16, 2026 DAL @ NO 111 - 129
Dec 22, 2025 DAL @ NO 113 - 119
Nov 21, 2025 NO @ DAL 115 - 118
Nov 5, 2025 NO @ DAL 101 - 99
Feb 21, 2025 NO @ DAL 103 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +26.2% more
New Orleans: 10.3 vs Dallas: 7.6
Free Throw % (L5) +5.8%
New Orleans: 77.8% vs Dallas: 72.0%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
New Orleans: 46.0% vs Dallas: 43.5%
Blocks (L5) +55.0% more
Dallas: 6.1 vs New Orleans: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NO Score 110.0 115
DAL Score 89.0 118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.9 / 31.0 37.0 / 26.0
Assists 22.4 / 23.1 30.0 / 25.0
Blocks 6.1 / 3.9 9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 46.0 48.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 72.0 / 77.8 79.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 47.0 / 40.7 47.0 / 42.0
Steals 7.6 / 10.3 9.0 / 15.0
Turnovers 18.4 / 16.6 20.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
35%MONEY65%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
DAL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -5.5 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
NO
DAL
NO
ML
62% 63-39
62% 98-61
54% 44-37
58% 48-35
ATS
67% 68-34
68% 107-51-1
54% 44-37
58% 48-35
TTL
59% 60-41-1
75% 119-40
100% 81-0
100% 83-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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