DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
11-3 | Road
112
HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
10-3 | Home
109
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
ROCKETS
0%
NUGGETS
--
ROCKETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Houston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HOU -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)
DEN By 1-7 points
4.8%
DEN By 8-14 points
1.1%
HOU By 1-7 points
15.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Denver
110
DENVER
Houston
125
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
Denver
106
DENVER
Houston
118
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rockets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rockets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rockets (-2.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim
Rockets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o234.5
Loss
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim
u234.5
Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
HOU @ DEN
93 - 129
Dec 20, 2025
HOU @ DEN
115 - 101
Dec 15, 2025
HOU @ DEN
125 - 128
Nov 21, 2025
DEN @ HOU
112 - 109
Apr 13, 2025
DEN @ HOU
126 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+43.8% more
Houston: 4.5
vs
Denver: 3.1
Steals (L5)
+17.1% more
Houston: 8.9
vs
Denver: 7.6
Rebounding (L5)
+14.4% more
Houston: 51.8
vs
Denver: 45.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+1.7%
Houston: 40.1%
vs
Denver: 38.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DEN Score
110.0
112
HOU Score
125.0
109
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.1 / 38.5
39.0 / 38.0
Assists
23.5 / 28.0
21.0 / 28.0
Blocks
4.5 / 3.1
2.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
47.0 / 50.9
44.0 / 53.0
Free Throw %
81.5 / 80.4
65.0 / 78.0
Rebounding
51.8 / 45.3
41.0 / 38.0
Steals
8.9 / 7.6
8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
13.1 / 14.0
16.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
HOU
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
DEN
HOU
DEN
ML
61%
69-44
54%
57-48
59%
51-35
55%
47-39
ATS
62%
70-43
63%
65-38-2
59%
51-35
55%
47-39
TTL
51%
58-55
54%
56-48-1
100%
86-0
100%
86-0
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