OKLAHOMA CITY
THUNDEROKC
15-1 | Road
144
UTAH
JAZZUTAH
5-9 | Home
112
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
0%
JAZZ
100%
THUNDER
--
JAZZ
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+10.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UTAH +10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)
OKC By 1-7 points
23.0%
OKC By 8-14 points
27.2%
UTAH By 1-7 points
10.7%
UTAH By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Oklahoma City
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
Utah
100
UTAH
Simulated Score
Oklahoma City
112
OKLAHOMA CITY
Utah
118
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Thunder
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jazz
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Jazz (+16)
Win
Proj Spread: +10.0
D
Sim
Jazz (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u233.5
Loss
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Sim
u233.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 5, 2026
UTAH @ OKC
111 - 146
Jan 7, 2026
UTAH @ OKC
125 - 129
Dec 7, 2025
OKC @ UTAH
131 - 101
Nov 21, 2025
OKC @ UTAH
144 - 112
Apr 11, 2025
OKC @ UTAH
145 - 111
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+46.3% more
Oklahoma City: 6.8
vs
Utah: 3.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+2.9%
Oklahoma City: 85.1%
vs
Utah: 82.2%
Assists (L5)
+25.8% more
Utah: 31.9
vs
Oklahoma City: 25.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OKC Score
110.0
144
UTAH Score
100.0
112
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.6 / 34.9
42.0 / 62.0
Assists
31.9 / 25.4
30.0 / 36.0
Blocks
3.7 / 6.8
3.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
48.0 / 48.6
48.0 / 61.0
Free Throw %
82.2 / 85.1
83.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
42.7 / 43.4
39.0 / 26.0
Steals
10.1 / 10.4
10.0 / 15.0
Turnovers
15.9 / 15.0
28.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC
Advantage
75-22-0
(77.3%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0
(48.4%)
Margin: 10.5
ATS +/-: +0.4
UTAH
Advantage
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3%
Total +/-: +0.8
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
OKC
UTAH
OKC
ML
60%
96-63
70%
80-34
48%
40-43
48%
46-49
ATS
68%
108-51
73%
83-30-1
48%
40-43
48%
46-49
TTL
75%
119-39-1
67%
76-38
100%
83-0
100%
95-0
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