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MERRIMACK

WARRIORSMRMK

2-3  |  Road

45
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 7:00 PM ET
Stephen C. O'Connell Center
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA

GATORSFLA

3-1  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
WARRIORS
100%
📊
GATORS
0%
WARRIORS --
GATORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
142.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
FLORIDA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Florida)
WarriorsMRMK (-3.5) 0 GatorsFLA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Warriors Cover

42.1%

Gators Cover

57.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FLA -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FLA)

MRMK By 1-7 points

23.0%

MRMK By 8-14 points

12.2%

FLA By 1-7 points

26.8%

FLA By 8-14 points

18.6%

AI Model Projected Score
70
MERRIMACK
72
FLORIDA
Simulated Score
68
MERRIMACK
75
FLORIDA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Gators Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Gators Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Gators (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
D
Sim Gators (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 MRMK @ FLA 45 - 80
Dec 5, 2023 MRMK @ FLA 57 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +118.7% more
Florida: 5.6 vs Merrimack: 2.6
Rebounding (L5) +75.0% more
Florida: 50.9 vs Merrimack: 29.1
Turnovers (L5) +33.8% more
Florida: 15.6 vs Merrimack: 11.6
Assists (L5) +22.0% more
Florida: 15.5 vs Merrimack: 12.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRMK Score 70.0 45
FLA Score 72.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.0 / 34.4 36.0 / 16.0
Assists 15.5 / 12.7 14.0 / 7.0
Blocks 5.6 / 2.6 5.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.7 / 43.0 44.0 / 29.0
Free Throw % 68.9 / 75.0 78.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 50.9 / 29.1 53.0 / 25.0
Steals 6.4 / 8.0 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 15.6 / 11.6 12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
35%MONEY65%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
10%MONEY90%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRMK
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
FLA Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 15.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRMK Advantage
19-14-1 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.1 ATS +/-: +2.8
FLA
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 15.6 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7% Total +/-: -3.2
FLA
14-20-1
O: 41.2% / U: 58.8% Total +/-: -1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FLA
MRMK
FLA
MRMK
ML
77% 27-8
47% 16-18
63% 22-13
65% 22-12
ATS
69% 24-11
53% 18-16
63% 22-13
65% 22-12
TTL
63% 22-13
62% 21-13
100% 35-0
100% 34-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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