STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
LUMBERJACKSSFA
5-1 | Road
63
PEPPERDINE
WAVESPEPP
3-3 | Home
60
AI Model Win Probability
LUMBERJACKS
100%
WAVES
0%
LUMBERJACKS
--
WAVES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
158.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
PEPPERDINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Pepperdine)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around PEPP -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PEPP)
SFA By 1-7 points
5.8%
SFA By 8-14 points
1.4%
PEPP By 1-7 points
16.9%
PEPP By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Stephen F. Austin
72
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Pepperdine
86
PEPPERDINE
Simulated Score
Stephen F. Austin
71
STEPHEN F. AUSTIN
Pepperdine
75
PEPPERDINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Waves
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Waves
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Waves (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Waves (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 158.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 21, 2025
SFA @ PEPP
63 - 60
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+27.8% more
Pepperdine: 18.2
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 14.2
Free Throw % (L5)
+20.1%
Pepperdine: 78.8%
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 58.7%
Steals (L5)
+11.6% more
Pepperdine: 7.3
vs
Stephen F. Austin: 6.6
Blocks (L5)
+30.6% more
Stephen F. Austin: 4.6
vs
Pepperdine: 3.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
SFA Score
72.0
63
PEPP Score
86.0
60
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.9 / 39.4
39.0 / 28.0
Assists
18.2 / 14.2
7.0 / 17.0
Blocks
3.2 / 4.6
3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
45.1 / 45.3
40.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
78.8 / 58.7
93.0 / 100.0
Rebounding
38.4 / 37.2
28.0 / 32.0
Steals
7.3 / 6.6
4.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
9.3 / 10.7
15.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFA
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
PEPP
9-23-0
(28.1%)
Margin: -7.3
ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFA
Advantage
23-9-0
(71.9%)
Margin: 10.0
ATS +/-: +3.1
PEPP
14-16-0
(46.7%)
Margin: -7.3
ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SFA
14-18-0
O: 43.8% / U: 56.3%
Total +/-: -0.9
PEPP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PEPP
SFA
PEPP
SFA
ML
62%
20-12
59%
17-12
69%
22-10
79%
23-6
ATS
56%
18-14
59%
17-12
69%
22-10
79%
23-6
TTL
50%
16-16
62%
18-11
100%
32-0
100%
29-0
Contextual Game News
