Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Jaguars @ Blazers USA @ UAB

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

6-0  |  Road

72
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 7:30 PM ET
Bartow Arena
View Odds Details →

UAB

BLAZERSUAB

3-2  |  Home

80
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
100%
📊
BLAZERS
0%
JAGUARS --
BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
179.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
UAB
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (UAB)
JaguarsUSA (-3.5) 0 BlazersUAB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

0.0%

Blazers Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UAB -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UAB)

USA By 1-7 points

0.0%

USA By 8-14 points

0.0%

UAB By 1-7 points

0.5%

UAB By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
73
SOUTH ALABAMA
106
UAB
Simulated Score
72
SOUTH ALABAMA
77
UAB
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Blazers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blazers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Blazers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim Blazers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 179.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 USA @ UAB 72 - 80
Dec 4, 2022 USA @ UAB 68 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +86.7% more
UAB: 3.7 vs South Alabama: 2.0
Steals (L5) +63.3% more
UAB: 12.1 vs South Alabama: 7.4
Assists (L5) +51.0% more
UAB: 16.3 vs South Alabama: 10.8
Rebounding (L5) +23.5% more
UAB: 47.8 vs South Alabama: 38.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 73.0 72
UAB Score 106.0 80
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.2 / 30.8 33.0 / 32.0
Assists 16.3 / 10.8 25.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.7 / 2.0 3.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 46.4 46.0 / 47.0
Free Throw % 71.8 / 65.3 62.0 / 59.0
Rebounding 47.8 / 38.7 42.0 / 29.0
Steals 12.1 / 7.4 1.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 8.3 9.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
27%MONEY73%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
UAB
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
UAB
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
UAB
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UAB
USA
UAB
USA
ML
59% 19-13
47% 15-17
41% 13-19
57% 17-13
ATS
56% 18-14
53% 17-15
41% 13-19
57% 17-13
TTL
69% 22-10
66% 21-11
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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