LITTLE ROCK
TROJANSLR
2-4 | Road
56
TEXAS STATE
BOBCATSTXST
5-2 | Home
65
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
BOBCATS
0%
TROJANS
--
BOBCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Texas State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TXST -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)
LR By 1-7 points
10.7%
LR By 8-14 points
3.3%
TXST By 1-7 points
23.0%
TXST By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Little Rock
61
LITTLE ROCK
Texas State
71
TEXAS STATE
Simulated Score
Little Rock
68
LITTLE ROCK
Texas State
72
TEXAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bobcats
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bobcats (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Bobcats (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u132.5
Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim
u132.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 21, 2025
LR @ TXST
56 - 65
Nov 6, 2023
TXST @ LR
66 - 71
Feb 19, 2022
LR @ TXST
50 - 68
Jan 20, 2022
TXST @ LR
69 - 59
Feb 6, 2021
LR @ TXST
67 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+87.8% more
Texas State: 6.2
vs
Little Rock: 3.3
Steals (L5)
+36.8% more
Texas State: 9.5
vs
Little Rock: 6.9
Rebounding (L5)
+13.1% more
Texas State: 38.1
vs
Little Rock: 33.7
Free Throw % (L5)
+11.8%
Texas State: 74.2%
vs
Little Rock: 62.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LR Score
61.0
56
TXST Score
71.0
65
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.7 / 41.8
36.0 / 29.0
Assists
12.2 / 12.9
15.0 / 10.0
Blocks
6.2 / 3.3
3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 46.0
52.0 / 37.0
Free Throw %
74.2 / 62.4
56.0 / 67.0
Rebounding
38.1 / 33.7
37.0 / 29.0
Steals
9.5 / 6.9
6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers
15.2 / 17.1
17.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LR
12-20-0
(37.5%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
TXST
Advantage
19-13-0
(59.4%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LR
12-18-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -3.6
ATS +/-: -2.0
TXST
Advantage
14-15-1
(48.3%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
LR
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.0
TXST
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TXST
LR
TXST
LR
ML
42%
13-18
52%
16-15
83%
25-5
68%
17-8
ATS
48%
15-16
45%
14-17
84%
26-5
68%
17-8
TTL
65%
20-11
58%
18-13
100%
31-0
100%
25-0
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