Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Purple Aces @ Beavers EVAN @ ORST

EVANSVILLE

PURPLE ACESEVAN

3-3  |  Road

73
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 8:00 PM ET
UVI Sports & Fitness Center
View Odds Details →

OREGON STATE

BEAVERSORST

3-2  |  Home

69
AI Model Win Probability
PURPLE ACES
100%
📊
BEAVERS
0%
PURPLE ACES --
BEAVERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Oregon State)
Purple AcesEVAN (-3.5) 0 BeaversORST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Purple Aces Cover

3.6%

Beavers Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ORST -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)

EVAN By 1-7 points

2.7%

EVAN By 8-14 points

0.5%

ORST By 1-7 points

10.7%

ORST By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
67
EVANSVILLE
85
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
68
EVANSVILLE
74
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Beavers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Beavers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Beavers (-6.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Beavers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o137.5 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u137.5 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 EVAN @ ORST 73 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +10.2%
Oregon State: 80.4% vs Evansville: 70.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Oregon State: 32.4% vs Evansville: 29.2%
Steals (L5) +29.9% more
Evansville: 7.1 vs Oregon State: 5.0
Blocks (L5) +20.0% more
Evansville: 3.3 vs Oregon State: 2.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EVAN Score 67.0 73
ORST Score 85.0 69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.4 / 29.2 24.0 / 28.0
Assists 12.4 / 14.8 12.0 / 8.0
Blocks 2.6 / 3.3 1.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 45.7 37.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 80.4 / 70.2 83.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 30.1 / 30.5 34.0 / 34.0
Steals 5.0 / 7.1 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 11.9 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
3%MONEY97%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EVAN
7-25-0 (21.9%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
ORST Advantage
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EVAN
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -3.8
ORST Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -3.0 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
EVAN
16-13-1
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +2.3
ORST
19-14-0
O: 57.6% / U: 42.4% Total +/-: +1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
EVAN
ORST
EVAN
ML
45% 15-18
56% 18-14
59% 19-13
62% 20-12
ATS
48% 16-17
66% 21-11
59% 19-13
62% 20-12
TTL
55% 18-15
62% 20-12
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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