UC RIVERSIDE
HIGHLANDERSUCR
3-3 | Road
85
SAN DIEGO
TOREROSUSD
3-2 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
HIGHLANDERS
0%
TOREROS
100%
HIGHLANDERS
--
TOREROS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
164.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.0
UC RIVERSIDE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.0 points (UC Riverside)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCR -16.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCR)
UCR By 1-7 points
13.7%
UCR By 8-14 points
24.3%
USD By 1-7 points
4.0%
USD By 8-14 points
0.8%
AI Model Projected Score
UC Riverside
90
UC RIVERSIDE
San Diego
74
SAN DIEGO
Simulated Score
UC Riverside
68
UC RIVERSIDE
San Diego
72
SAN DIEGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Highlanders
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Toreros
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Highlanders (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Sim
Toreros (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 164.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 21, 2025
UCR @ USD
85 - 71
Dec 20, 2022
USD @ UCR
92 - 84
Nov 17, 2021
UCR @ USD
62 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+20.8% more
UC Riverside: 17.8
vs
San Diego: 14.1
Rebounding (L5)
+10.3% more
UC Riverside: 36.7
vs
San Diego: 32.9
Steals (L5)
+49.4% more
San Diego: 8.7
vs
UC Riverside: 5.8
Blocks (L5)
+35.5% more
San Diego: 5.2
vs
UC Riverside: 3.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCR Score
90.0
85
USD Score
74.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.4 / 30.6
28.0 / 47.0
Assists
15.5 / 12.1
13.0 / 14.0
Blocks
5.2 / 3.9
7.0 / 5.0
Field Goal %
43.3 / 43.1
41.0 / 55.0
Free Throw %
77.6 / 75.3
74.0 / 68.0
Rebounding
32.9 / 36.7
32.0 / 33.0
Steals
8.7 / 5.8
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.1 / 17.8
11.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCR
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
USD
Advantage
12-21-0
(36.4%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCR
14-14-2
(50.0%)
Margin: -4.9
ATS +/-: +0.4
USD
Advantage
16-15-0
(51.6%)
Margin: -3.4
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UCR
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +1.3
USD
12-17-2
O: 41.4% / U: 58.6%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USD
UCR
USD
UCR
ML
58%
19-14
66%
21-11
70%
23-10
75%
24-8
ATS
55%
18-15
59%
19-13
70%
23-10
75%
24-8
TTL
61%
20-13
66%
21-11
100%
33-0
100%
32-0
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