Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Green Wave USU @ TULN

UTAH STATE

AGGIESUSU

4-0  |  Road

96
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 1:00 PM ET
TD Arena
View Odds Details →

TULANE

GREEN WAVETULN

3-1  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
GREEN WAVE
0%
AGGIES --
GREEN WAVE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
77.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TULANE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Tulane)
AggiesUSU (-3.5) 0 Green WaveTULN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

46.0%

Green Wave Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TULN -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TULN)

USU By 1-7 points

24.3%

USU By 8-14 points

13.7%

TULN By 1-7 points

26.2%

TULN By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
38
UTAH STATE
39
TULANE
Simulated Score
68
UTAH STATE
72
TULANE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Green Wave Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Green Wave Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Green Wave (+9) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Green Wave (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u152.5 Loss
Proj Total: 77.0
D
Sim u152.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 USU @ TULN 96 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +22.4% more
Tulane: 4.4 vs Utah State: 3.6
Free Throw % (L5) +8.5%
Tulane: 78.8% vs Utah State: 70.3%
Assists (L5) +40.2% more
Utah State: 16.2 vs Tulane: 9.7
Turnovers (L5) +34.2% more
Utah State: 12.9 vs Tulane: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USU Score 38.0 96
TULN Score 39.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.1 / 28.5 50.0 / 52.0
Assists 9.7 / 16.2 16.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.4 / 3.6 6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 46.9 43.0 / 62.0
Free Throw % 78.8 / 70.3 74.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 27.8 / 39.1 21.0 / 36.0
Steals 8.1 / 10.6 5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 8.5 / 12.9 13.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
89%TICKETS11%
84%MONEY16%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
66%MONEY34%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USU Advantage
29-7-0 (80.6%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
TULN
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: -2.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USU
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 11.4 ATS +/-: +1.2
TULN Advantage
15-17-0 (46.9%)
Margin: -3.2 ATS +/-: -2.7
⚖️ Over/Under
USU
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +1.9
TULN
13-18-1
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TULN
USU
TULN
USU
ML
70% 23-10
49% 17-18
47% 15-17
66% 21-11
ATS
62% 20-12-1
74% 26-9
47% 15-17
67% 22-11
TTL
55% 18-15
51% 18-17
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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