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GEORGIA SOUTHERN

EAGLESGASO

3-3  |  Road

72
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 6:00 PM ET
Tucker Center
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

SEMINOLESFSU

4-1  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
SEMINOLES
0%
EAGLES --
SEMINOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-24.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +24.0 points (Florida State)
EaglesGASO (-3.5) 0 SeminolesFSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

0.8%

Seminoles Cover

99.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FSU -24.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

GASO By 1-7 points

0.6%

GASO By 8-14 points

0.1%

FSU By 1-7 points

4.0%

FSU By 8-14 points

12.2%

AI Model Projected Score
66
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
90
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
65
GEORGIA SOUTHERN
80
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seminoles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seminoles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seminoles (-17.5) Win
Proj Spread: -24.0
D
Sim Seminoles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u175.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u175.5 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 GASO @ FSU 72 - 98
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +20.3% more
Florida State: 16.2 vs Georgia Southern: 13.5
Steals (L5) +14.1% more
Florida State: 12.0 vs Georgia Southern: 10.5
Free Throw % (L5) +7.8%
Florida State: 72.0% vs Georgia Southern: 64.2%
Turnovers (L5) +21.4% more
Georgia Southern: 12.1 vs Florida State: 9.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GASO Score 66.0 72
FSU Score 90.0 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.6 / 36.0 35.0 / 27.0
Assists 16.2 / 13.5 23.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.7 / 4.0 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 42.9 / 44.8 44.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 72.0 / 64.2 66.0 / 88.0
Rebounding 36.6 / 35.2 46.0 / 39.0
Steals 12.0 / 10.5 11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.5 / 12.1 11.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
4%MONEY96%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GASO Advantage
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
FSU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GASO
17-18-0 (48.6%)
Margin: 1.2 ATS +/-: -0.1
FSU Advantage
19-13-1 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GASO
18-17-0
O: 51.4% / U: 48.6% Total +/-: +2.6
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
GASO
FSU
GASO
ML
64% 21-12
56% 20-16
59% 19-13
58% 19-14
ATS
55% 18-15
64% 23-13
59% 19-13
58% 19-14
TTL
48% 16-17
61% 22-14
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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