LOUISVILLE
CARDINALSLOU
5-0 | Road
74
CINCINNATI
BEARCATSCIN
4-1 | Home
64
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
0%
BEARCATS
100%
CARDINALS
--
BEARCATS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
137.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Louisville)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around LOU -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)
LOU By 1-7 points
26.2%
LOU By 8-14 points
16.9%
CIN By 1-7 points
24.3%
CIN By 8-14 points
13.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Louisville
69
LOUISVILLE
Cincinnati
68
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
Louisville
73
LOUISVILLE
Cincinnati
78
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Bearcats
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim
Bearcats (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 21, 2025
LOU @ CIN
74 - 64
Nov 23, 2022
LOU @ CIN
62 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+22.1% more
Louisville: 20.2
vs
Cincinnati: 15.7
Steals (L5)
+18.3% more
Louisville: 9.9
vs
Cincinnati: 8.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+10.0%
Louisville: 73.0%
vs
Cincinnati: 62.9%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+5.6%
Louisville: 36.6%
vs
Cincinnati: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LOU Score
69.0
74
CIN Score
68.0
64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.0 / 36.6
28.0 / 29.0
Assists
15.7 / 20.2
19.0 / 13.0
Blocks
5.8 / 2.8
7.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
42.9 / 48.3
37.0 / 38.0
Free Throw %
62.9 / 73.0
63.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
41.6 / 41.4
38.0 / 41.0
Steals
8.1 / 9.9
5.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
14.8 / 10.2
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LOU
Advantage
24-11-0
(68.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
CIN
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LOU
Advantage
17-18-0
(48.6%)
Margin: 11.7
ATS +/-: +0.3
CIN
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 5.5
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LOU
15-20-0
O: 42.9% / U: 57.1%
Total +/-: -3.6
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6%
Total +/-: -4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
LOU
CIN
LOU
ML
67%
22-11
63%
22-13
74%
23-8
71%
24-10
ATS
64%
21-12
71%
25-10
74%
23-8
71%
24-10
TTL
67%
22-11
63%
22-13
100%
31-0
100%
34-0
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