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UC DAVIS

AGGIESUCD

4-2  |  Road

79
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 9:00 PM ET
CU Events Center
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

BUFFALOESCOLO

5-0  |  Home

95
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
BUFFALOES
0%
AGGIES --
BUFFALOES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
134.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-26.0
COLORADO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +26.0 points (Colorado)
AggiesUCD (-3.5) 0 BuffaloesCOLO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

0.5%

Buffaloes Cover

99.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around COLO -26.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (COLO)

UCD By 1-7 points

0.4%

UCD By 8-14 points

0.0%

COLO By 1-7 points

2.7%

COLO By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
54
UC DAVIS
80
COLORADO
Simulated Score
61
UC DAVIS
80
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Buffaloes Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Buffaloes Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Buffaloes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -26.0
D
Sim Buffaloes (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -19.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 134.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 UCD @ COLO 79 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +23.4% more
Colorado: 40.0 vs UC Davis: 32.4
Assists (L5) +17.6% more
Colorado: 17.3 vs UC Davis: 14.7
Blocks (L5) +10.6% more
Colorado: 3.4 vs UC Davis: 3.0
Field Goal % (L5) +4.5%
Colorado: 50.5% vs UC Davis: 46.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCD Score 54.0 79
COLO Score 80.0 95
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 34.7 60.0 / 33.0
Assists 17.3 / 14.7 24.0 / 16.0
Blocks 3.4 / 3.0 5.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 50.5 / 46.0 60.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 75.9 / 74.5 86.0 / 100.0
Rebounding 40.0 / 32.4 29.0 / 26.0
Steals 5.9 / 8.3 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 16.2 10.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
42%MONEY58%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
87%MONEY13%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
0%MONEY100%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCD Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
COLO
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCD Advantage
17-14-1 (54.8%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +0.8
COLO
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UCD
18-14-0
O: 56.3% / U: 43.8% Total +/-: +1.6
COLO
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +4.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COLO
UCD
COLO
UCD
ML
61% 20-13
58% 19-14
69% 22-10
64% 21-12
ATS
73% 24-9
61% 20-13
69% 22-10
64% 21-12
TTL
45% 15-18
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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