Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Aggies SAM @ NMSU

SAMFORD

BULLDOGSSAM

3-4  |  Road

72
FINAL
Fri, Nov 21 • 9:00 PM ET
Pan American Center
View Odds Details →

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

4-0  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
AGGIES
0%
BULLDOGS --
AGGIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
153.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
NEW MEXICO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (New Mexico State)
BulldogsSAM (-3.5) 0 AggiesNMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

4.5%

Aggies Cover

95.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NMSU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NMSU)

SAM By 1-7 points

3.3%

SAM By 8-14 points

0.6%

NMSU By 1-7 points

12.2%

NMSU By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
68
SAMFORD
85
NEW MEXICO STATE
Simulated Score
72
SAMFORD
78
NEW MEXICO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Aggies Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Aggies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Aggies (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Aggies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o144.5 Win
Proj Total: 153.0
D
Sim u144.5 Win
Proj Total: 150.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 21, 2025 SAM @ NMSU 72 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +53.5% more
New Mexico State: 9.5 vs Samford: 6.2
Blocks (L5) +16.0% more
New Mexico State: 3.6 vs Samford: 3.1
Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
New Mexico State: 43.1% vs Samford: 39.7%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.1%
New Mexico State: 69.6% vs Samford: 67.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAM Score 68.0 72
NMSU Score 85.0 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.5 / 32.4 44.0 / 27.0
Assists 12.7 / 14.4 16.0 / 9.0
Blocks 3.6 / 3.1 2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.1 / 39.7 54.0 / 40.0
Free Throw % 69.6 / 67.5 75.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 35.6 / 36.2 37.0 / 29.0
Steals 9.5 / 6.2 1.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 9.4 6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
100%MONEY0%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAM Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
NMSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAM Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
NMSU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +2.6
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NMSU
SAM
NMSU
SAM
ML
61% 19-12
65% 20-11
67% 20-10
68% 21-10
ATS
65% 20-11
68% 21-10
67% 20-10
68% 21-10
TTL
45% 14-17
35% 11-20
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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