WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
10-8-2 | Road
8
MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
10-6-3 | Home
4
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Charlie Lindgren
#79 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Sam Montembeault
#35 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Lindgren | None-None | 4.00 | 0.857 | -- |
| Sam Montembeault | None-None | 7.88 | 0.700 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
4.00 Ldr
GAA
7.88
0.857 Ldr
Save %
0.700
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
CANADIENS
100%
CAPITALS
--
CANADIENS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1 goal
12.1%
WSH By 2-3 goals
37.2%
MTL By 1 goal
2.8%
MTL By 2-3 goals
1.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Montreal
1
MONTREAL
Simulated Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
Montreal
4
MONTREAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Canadiens
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Capitals (-1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
D
Sim
Canadiens (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 28, 2026
WSH @ MTL
2 - 6
Jan 13, 2026
MTL @ WSH
2 - 3
Nov 20, 2025
WSH @ MTL
8 - 4
Apr 30, 2025
MTL @ WSH
1 - 4
Apr 27, 2025
WSH @ MTL
5 - 2
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+19.6% more
Washington: 19.8
vs
Montreal: 15.9
Takeaways (L5)
+14.0% more
Washington: 6.1
vs
Montreal: 5.2
Hits (L5)
+26.4% more
Montreal: 22.4
vs
Washington: 17.7
Power Play % (L5)
+2.0%
Montreal: 4.2%
vs
Washington: 2.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
4.0
8
MTL Score
1.0
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
15.9 / 19.8
15.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
49.9 / 48.0
54.5 / 45.5
Hits
22.4 / 17.7
20.0 / 19.0
Power Play %
4.2 / 2.2
33.3 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
27.0 / 27.2
28.0 / 36.0
Takeaways
5.2 / 6.1
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTL
WSH
MTL
WSH
ML
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
67%
2-1
100%
3-0
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
TTL
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
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