EDMONTON
OILERSEDM
9-9-4 | Road
1
TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
10-7-2 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Jake Walman
#96 | Defense@
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Walman | None-None | -- | -- | -- |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 0.97 | 0.960 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
--
GAA
0.97
--
Save %
0.960
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
OILERS
0%
LIGHTNING
100%
OILERS
--
LIGHTNING
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+1.0
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TB +1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
EDM By 1 goal
19.7%
EDM By 2-3 goals
29.6%
TB By 1 goal
12.1%
TB By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Edmonton
3
EDMONTON
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
Simulated Score
Edmonton
3
EDMONTON
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Oilers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lightning
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Lightning (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: +1.0
D
Sim
Lightning (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u6.5
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 21, 2026
TB @ EDM
5 - 2
Nov 20, 2025
EDM @ TB
1 - 2
Feb 25, 2025
EDM @ TB
1 - 4
Dec 10, 2024
TB @ EDM
1 - 2
Dec 14, 2023
TB @ EDM
7 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+15.6% more
Edmonton: 4.2
vs
Tampa Bay: 3.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+9.5%
Edmonton: 54.3%
vs
Tampa Bay: 44.8%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+9.2% more
Edmonton: 11.8
vs
Tampa Bay: 10.7
Hits (L5)
+14.5% more
Tampa Bay: 18.8
vs
Edmonton: 16.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
EDM Score
3.0
1
TB Score
2.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
10.7 / 11.8
19.0 / 10.0
Faceoff %
44.8 / 54.3
42.6 / 57.4
Hits
18.8 / 16.4
29.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
2825.0 / 2955.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
27.8 / 29.0
35.0 / 25.0
Takeaways
3.6 / 4.2
3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TB
EDM
TB
EDM
ML
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
ATS
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
TTL
75%
3-1
25%
1-3
100%
4-0
25%
1-3
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