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SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

3-12  |  Road

96
FINAL
Thu, Nov 20 • 8:00 PM ET
FedExForum
View Odds Details →

MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

4-11  |  Home

137
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
0%
📊
GRIZZLIES
100%
KINGS --
GRIZZLIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Sacramento)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 GrizzliesMEM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

91.9%

Grizzlies Cover

8.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SAC -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

SAC By 1-7 points

16.9%

SAC By 8-14 points

26.2%

MEM By 1-7 points

5.8%

MEM By 8-14 points

1.4%

AI Model Projected Score
112
SACRAMENTO
98
MEMPHIS
Simulated Score
109
SACRAMENTO
118
MEMPHIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Grizzlies Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Kings (-3) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Grizzlies (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u234.5 Win
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Sim u234.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 23, 2026 SAC @ MEM 123 - 114
Feb 4, 2026 MEM @ SAC 129 - 125
Nov 30, 2025 MEM @ SAC 115 - 107
Nov 20, 2025 SAC @ MEM 96 - 137
Mar 17, 2025 MEM @ SAC 122 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +28.7% more
Sacramento: 9.8 vs Memphis: 7.0
Field Goal % (L5) +4.9%
Sacramento: 44.7% vs Memphis: 39.8%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.3%
Sacramento: 33.9% vs Memphis: 30.6%
Blocks (L5) +116.7% more
Memphis: 4.2 vs Sacramento: 1.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 112.0 96
MEM Score 98.0 137
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.6 / 33.9 31.0 / 33.0
Assists 26.8 / 24.7 42.0 / 24.0
Blocks 4.2 / 1.9 3.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 39.8 / 44.7 51.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 69.0 / 68.2 77.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 48.5 / 40.6 49.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.0 / 9.8 11.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 14.3 / 15.5 8.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
MEM Advantage
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MEM
SAC
MEM
SAC
ML
57% 59-44
55% 55-45
50% 41-41
61% 50-32
ATS
63% 65-38
54% 52-45-3
50% 41-41
61% 50-32
TTL
70% 71-31-1
58% 57-42-1
100% 82-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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