ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
9-6 | Road
126
SAN ANTONIO
SPURSSA
10-4 | Home
135
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
SPURS
100%
HAWKS
--
SPURS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
214.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
23.0%
ATL By 8-14 points
27.2%
SA By 1-7 points
10.7%
SA By 8-14 points
3.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
San Antonio
102
SAN ANTONIO
Simulated Score
Atlanta
110
ATLANTA
San Antonio
115
SAN ANTONIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Spurs
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (+1.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim
Spurs (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u232.5
Loss
Proj Total: 214.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 19, 2025
SA @ ATL
126 - 98
Nov 20, 2025
ATL @ SA
126 - 135
Feb 5, 2025
SA @ ATL
126 - 125
Dec 19, 2024
ATL @ SA
126 - 133
Jan 15, 2024
SA @ ATL
99 - 109
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+25.6% more
Atlanta: 11.1
vs
San Antonio: 8.3
Blocks (L5)
+19.0% more
Atlanta: 5.0
vs
San Antonio: 4.1
Turnovers (L5)
+18.5% more
Atlanta: 17.5
vs
San Antonio: 14.2
Assists (L5)
+13.7% more
Atlanta: 32.8
vs
San Antonio: 28.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
112.0
126
SA Score
102.0
135
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
36.7 / 37.4
43.0 / 54.0
Assists
28.3 / 32.8
34.0 / 30.0
Blocks
4.1 / 5.0
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
49.7 / 50.2
53.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
83.2 / 81.3
73.0 / 62.0
Rebounding
42.5 / 37.4
43.0 / 39.0
Steals
8.3 / 11.1
10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
14.2 / 17.5
11.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
SA
Advantage
75-31-0
(70.8%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
SA
Advantage
60-44-2
(57.7%)
Margin: 8.0
ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
SA
49-57-0
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: -1.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SA
ATL
SA
ATL
ML
60%
111-73
50%
52-52
58%
61-44
55%
48-40
ATS
58%
107-76-1
53%
55-48-1
58%
61-44
55%
48-40
TTL
74%
134-47-3
53%
55-48-1
100%
105-0
100%
88-0
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