Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lakers @ RedHawks MERC @ M-OH

MERCYHURST

LAKERSMERC

3-3  |  Road

71
FINAL
Thu, Nov 20 • 7:00 PM ET
Millett Hall
View Odds Details →

MIAMI (OH)

REDHAWKSM-OH

4-0  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
REDHAWKS
0%
LAKERS --
REDHAWKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
143.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
MIAMI (OH)
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Miami (OH))
LakersMERC (-3.5) 0 RedHawksM-OH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

6.7%

RedHawks Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around M-OH -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (M-OH)

MERC By 1-7 points

4.8%

MERC By 8-14 points

1.1%

M-OH By 1-7 points

15.3%

M-OH By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
64
MERCYHURST
79
MIAMI (OH)
Simulated Score
63
MERCYHURST
72
MIAMI (OH)
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI RedHawks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim RedHawks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI RedHawks (+15.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim RedHawks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o139.5 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Sim u139.5 Win
Proj Total: 135.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 20, 2025 MERC @ M-OH 71 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +27.1% more
Miami (OH): 40.3 vs Mercyhurst: 31.7
Blocks (L5) +24.9% more
Miami (OH): 4.7 vs Mercyhurst: 3.7
Steals (L5) +18.7% more
Miami (OH): 7.6 vs Mercyhurst: 6.4
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.7%
Miami (OH): 46.6% vs Mercyhurst: 34.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MERC Score 64.0 71
M-OH Score 79.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 46.6 / 34.9 27.0 / 35.0
Assists 16.6 / 19.5 10.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.7 / 3.7 2.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 51.8 / 48.8 45.0 / 48.0
Free Throw % 68.9 / 66.5 84.0 / 69.0
Rebounding 40.3 / 31.7 30.0 / 32.0
Steals 7.6 / 6.4 4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 11.9 / 11.3 11.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MERC
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
M-OH Advantage
32-2-0 (94.1%)
Margin: 14.1 ATS +/-: +3.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MERC Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
M-OH
20-11-0 (64.5%)
Margin: 14.1 ATS +/-: +3.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.7
M-OH
20-11-0
O: 64.5% / U: 35.5% Total +/-: +5.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
M-OH
MERC
M-OH
MERC
ML
45% 15-18
59% 20-14
41% 13-19
79% 26-7
ATS
61% 20-13
62% 21-13
41% 13-19
79% 26-7
TTL
61% 20-13
53% 18-16
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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