CENTRAL ARKANSAS
BEARSCARK
1-3 | Road
56
NORTH TEXAS
MEAN GREENUNT
3-2 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
BEARS
100%
MEAN GREEN
0%
BEARS
--
MEAN GREEN
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
132.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
NORTH TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (North Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UNT -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNT)
CARK By 1-7 points
20.1%
CARK By 8-14 points
9.3%
UNT By 1-7 points
27.4%
UNT By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Central Arkansas
64
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
North Texas
68
NORTH TEXAS
Simulated Score
Central Arkansas
60
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
North Texas
72
NORTH TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Mean Green
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Mean Green
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Mean Green (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Mean Green (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 132.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 20, 2025
CARK @ UNT
56 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+280.4% more
North Texas: 5.4
vs
Central Arkansas: 1.4
Steals (L5)
+19.8% more
North Texas: 7.8
vs
Central Arkansas: 6.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+10.6%
North Texas: 35.2%
vs
Central Arkansas: 24.7%
Free Throw % (L5)
+7.3%
North Texas: 76.1%
vs
Central Arkansas: 68.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CARK Score
64.0
56
UNT Score
68.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.2 / 24.7
17.0 / 25.0
Assists
11.3 / 12.0
13.0 / 8.0
Blocks
5.4 / 1.4
1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
37.3 / 39.9
41.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
76.1 / 68.8
84.0 / 56.0
Rebounding
32.8 / 40.5
38.0 / 37.0
Steals
7.8 / 6.5
13.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
10.8 / 11.0
10.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CARK
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
UNT
19-14-0
(57.6%)
Margin: 3.5
ATS +/-: -0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CARK
Advantage
19-10-3
(65.5%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: +5.7
UNT
17-14-0
(54.8%)
Margin: 3.5
ATS +/-: -0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
CARK
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +3.9
UNT
15-16-0
O: 48.4% / U: 51.6%
Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNT
CARK
UNT
CARK
ML
70%
23-10
67%
22-11
59%
19-13
70%
23-10
ATS
52%
17-16
61%
20-13
59%
19-13
70%
23-10
TTL
67%
22-11
50%
16-16-1
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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