Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Texans @ Owls TAR @ RICE

TARLETON STATE

TEXANSTAR

4-3  |  Road

90
FINAL
Thu, Nov 20 • 8:00 PM ET
Tudor Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

RICE

OWLSRICE

2-4  |  Home

74
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
100%
📊
OWLS
0%
TEXANS --
OWLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
92.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
RICE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Rice)
TexansTAR (-3.5) 0 OwlsRICE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

3.6%

Owls Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around RICE -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (RICE)

TAR By 1-7 points

2.7%

TAR By 8-14 points

0.5%

RICE By 1-7 points

10.7%

RICE By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
37
TARLETON STATE
55
RICE
Simulated Score
65
TARLETON STATE
78
RICE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Owls Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Owls Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Owls (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Owls (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 92.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 20, 2025 TAR @ RICE 90 - 74
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +11.1%
Rice: 37.2% vs Tarleton State: 26.0%
Turnovers (L5) +25.8% more
Tarleton State: 16.7 vs Rice: 12.4
Blocks (L5) +21.0% more
Tarleton State: 3.5 vs Rice: 2.8
Steals (L5) +8.9% more
Tarleton State: 7.4 vs Rice: 6.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TAR Score 37.0 90
RICE Score 55.0 74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.2 / 26.0 37.0 / 33.0
Assists 11.1 / 11.2 16.0 / 15.0
Blocks 2.8 / 3.5 1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 39.1 / 45.3 41.0 / 59.0
Free Throw % 72.7 / 80.4 46.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 35.4 / 36.3 34.0 / 40.0
Steals 6.8 / 7.4 6.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 12.4 / 16.7 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TAR Advantage
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
RICE
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TAR
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
RICE Advantage
16-13-0 (55.2%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +4.8
RICE
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
RICE
TAR
RICE
TAR
ML
53% 16-14
59% 19-13
53% 16-14
66% 21-11
ATS
60% 18-12
69% 22-10
53% 16-14
66% 21-11
TTL
77% 23-7
50% 16-16
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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