SAINT JOSEPH'S
HAWKSJOES
2-3 | Road
85
UNLV
REBELSUNLV
3-2 | Home
99
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
REBELS
100%
HAWKS
--
REBELS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
SAINT JOSEPH'S
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Saint Joseph's)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around JOES -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JOES)
JOES By 1-7 points
8.0%
JOES By 8-14 points
18.6%
UNLV By 1-7 points
1.7%
UNLV By 8-14 points
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Saint Joseph's
78
SAINT JOSEPH'S
UNLV
58
UNLV
Simulated Score
Saint Joseph's
72
SAINT JOSEPH'S
UNLV
76
UNLV
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rebels
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Rebels (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 20, 2025
JOES @ UNLV
85 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+41.8% more
Saint Joseph's: 5.1
vs
UNLV: 3.0
Rebounding (L5)
+8.4% more
Saint Joseph's: 39.6
vs
UNLV: 36.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.8%
Saint Joseph's: 77.1%
vs
UNLV: 73.3%
Steals (L5)
+68.4% more
UNLV: 9.2
vs
Saint Joseph's: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
JOES Score
78.0
85
UNLV Score
58.0
99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
27.3 / 26.3
27.0 / 32.0
Assists
18.3 / 13.7
15.0 / 25.0
Blocks
3.0 / 5.1
8.0 / 7.0
Field Goal %
48.4 / 38.2
45.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
73.3 / 77.1
67.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
36.3 / 39.6
58.0 / 37.0
Steals
9.2 / 5.4
6.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.4 / 12.7
12.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JOES
Advantage
24-12-0
(66.7%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: +1.9
UNLV
18-17-0
(51.4%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JOES
Advantage
20-14-0
(58.8%)
Margin: 2.9
ATS +/-: +1.9
UNLV
17-17-0
(50.0%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
JOES
11-23-0
O: 32.4% / U: 67.7%
Total +/-: -3.3
UNLV
20-14-0
O: 58.8% / U: 41.2%
Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNLV
JOES
UNLV
JOES
ML
50%
17-17
51%
18-17
59%
20-14
61%
20-13
ATS
65%
22-12
60%
21-14
59%
20-14
61%
20-13
TTL
62%
21-13
54%
19-16
100%
34-0
100%
33-0
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