TROY
TROJANSTROY
4-3 | Road
106
USC
TROJANSUSC
4-0 | Home
107
AI Model Win Probability
TROJANS
100%
TROJANS
0%
TROJANS
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
185.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
USC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (USC)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USC -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)
TROY By 1-7 points
15.3%
TROY By 8-14 points
5.8%
USC By 1-7 points
26.2%
USC By 8-14 points
25.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Troy
89
TROY
USC
96
USC
Simulated Score
Troy
65
TROY
USC
78
USC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trojans
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 185.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 20, 2025
TROY @ USC
106 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+171.7% more
USC: 6.5
vs
Troy: 2.4
Assists (L5)
+22.6% more
USC: 19.9
vs
Troy: 16.2
Rebounding (L5)
+15.2% more
USC: 41.3
vs
Troy: 35.9
Field Goal % (L5)
+4.7%
USC: 49.8%
vs
Troy: 45.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TROY Score
89.0
106
USC Score
96.0
107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.9 / 34.0
31.0 / 34.0
Assists
19.9 / 16.2
23.0 / 18.0
Blocks
6.5 / 2.4
12.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
49.8 / 45.1
43.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
68.6 / 77.0
74.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
41.3 / 35.9
39.0 / 63.0
Steals
6.0 / 11.2
10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
9.8 / 12.2
13.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
USC
18-14-0
(56.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY
Advantage
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
USC
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: -3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
USC
17-14-0
O: 54.8% / U: 45.2%
Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
TROY
USC
TROY
ML
52%
16-15
59%
20-14
58%
18-13
61%
20-13
ATS
68%
21-10
65%
22-12
58%
18-13
61%
20-13
TTL
68%
21-10
56%
19-15
100%
31-0
100%
33-0
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