Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Sun Devils @ Rainbow Warriors ASU @ HAW

ARIZONA STATE

SUN DEVILSASU

4-1  |  Road

83
FINAL
Thu, Nov 20 • 11:59 PM ET
Stan Sheriff Center
View Odds Details →

HAWAI'I

RAINBOW WARRIORSHAW

4-2  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
SUN DEVILS
100%
📊
RAINBOW WARRIORS
0%
SUN DEVILS --
RAINBOW WARRIORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
151.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-33.0
HAWAI'I
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +33.0 points (Hawai'i)
Sun DevilsASU (-3.5) 0 Rainbow WarriorsHAW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Sun Devils Cover

0.0%

Rainbow Warriors Cover

100.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around HAW -33.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HAW)

ASU By 1-7 points

0.0%

ASU By 8-14 points

0.0%

HAW By 1-7 points

0.5%

HAW By 8-14 points

2.7%

AI Model Projected Score
59
ARIZONA STATE
92
HAWAI'I
Simulated Score
74
ARIZONA STATE
67
HAWAI'I
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rainbow Warriors Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Sun Devils Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rainbow Warriors (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -33.0
D
Sim Sun Devils (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o142.5 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Sim u142.5 Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 20, 2025 ASU @ HAW 83 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +41.2% more
Hawai'i: 14.5 vs Arizona State: 10.3
Rebounding (L5) +17.7% more
Hawai'i: 41.5 vs Arizona State: 35.3
Free Throw % (L5) +7.8%
Hawai'i: 77.2% vs Arizona State: 69.5%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Hawai'i: 46.3% vs Arizona State: 43.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ASU Score 59.0 83
HAW Score 92.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 28.3 / 29.9 26.0 / 37.0
Assists 13.1 / 14.0 10.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.6 / 4.1 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.3 / 43.6 46.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 77.2 / 69.5 77.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 41.5 / 35.3 33.0 / 33.0
Steals 6.2 / 7.1 4.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 10.3 17.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ASU
17-16-0 (51.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
HAW Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ASU Advantage
20-12-1 (62.5%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +0.9
HAW
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ASU
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5% Total +/-: +0.2
HAW
13-18-0
O: 41.9% / U: 58.1% Total +/-: -0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HAW
ASU
HAW
ASU
ML
61% 20-13
52% 17-16
68% 21-10
68% 21-10
ATS
67% 22-11
52% 17-16
68% 21-10
68% 21-10
TTL
61% 20-13
64% 21-12
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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