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MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

2-1  |  Road

77
FINAL
Thu, Nov 20 • 9:30 PM ET
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KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

4-0  |  Home

98
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
BULLDOGS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
109.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
MISSISSIPPI STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Mississippi State)
BulldogsMSST (-3.5) 0 WildcatsKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

81.6%

Wildcats Cover

18.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MSST -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MSST)

MSST By 1-7 points

24.3%

MSST By 8-14 points

26.8%

KSU By 1-7 points

12.2%

KSU By 8-14 points

4.0%

AI Model Projected Score
59
MISSISSIPPI STATE
50
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
69
MISSISSIPPI STATE
73
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bulldogs (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 109.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 20, 2025 MSST @ KSU 77 - 98
Dec 14, 2019 MSST @ KSU 67 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +23.6% more
Mississippi State: 4.4 vs Kansas State: 3.3
Steals (L5) +15.6% more
Mississippi State: 7.6 vs Kansas State: 6.4
Rebounding (L5) +13.5% more
Mississippi State: 40.5 vs Kansas State: 35.1
Turnovers (L5) +12.2% more
Mississippi State: 15.4 vs Kansas State: 13.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 59.0 77
KSU Score 50.0 98
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.8 / 35.5 47.0 / 28.0
Assists 18.8 / 15.5 22.0 / 11.0
Blocks 3.3 / 4.4 4.0 / 5.0
Field Goal % 51.2 / 46.1 51.0 / 43.0
Free Throw % 77.0 / 72.3 91.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 40.5 38.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.6 5.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 15.4 8.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
76%MONEY24%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
KSU Advantage
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
MSST
KSU
MSST
ML
59% 19-13
66% 21-11
69% 22-10
55% 17-14
ATS
62% 20-12
56% 18-14
69% 22-10
55% 17-14
TTL
47% 15-17
59% 19-13
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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