Home / NFL Projections NFL / Panthers @ 49ers CAR @ SF

CAROLINA

PANTHERSCAR

6-5  |  Road

9
FINAL
Mon, Nov 24 • 8:15 PM ET
Levi's Stadium
View Odds Details →

SAN FRANCISCO

49ERSSF

7-4  |  Home

20
Key Game
Sam Martin
KEY GAME

Sam Martin

#6 | Punter
@
Renardo Green
KEY GAME

Renardo Green

#0 | Cornerback
Player
Sam Martin None-None
Renardo Green None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
49ERS
0%
PANTHERS --
49ERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
SAN FRANCISCO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (San Francisco)
PanthersCAR (-3.5) 0 49ersSF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

41.5%

49ers Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around SF -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SF)

CAR By 1-6 points

15.3%

CAR By 7-13 points

12.9%

SF By 1-6 points

17.0%

SF By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
17
CAROLINA
20
SAN FRANCISCO
Simulated Score
27
CAROLINA
17
SAN FRANCISCO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI 49ers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Panthers Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI 49ers (+7.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Panthers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u49.5 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 24, 2025 CAR @ SF 9 - 20
Oct 9, 2022 SF @ CAR 37 - 15
Oct 27, 2019 CAR @ SF 13 - 51
Sep 10, 2017 CAR @ SF 23 - 3
Sep 18, 2016 SF @ CAR 27 - 46
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +17.9% more
San Francisco: 22.6 vs Carolina: 19.1
Yards Per Play (L5) +11.0% more
San Francisco: 5.7 vs Carolina: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAR Score 17.0 9
SF Score 20.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.6 / 19.1 23.0 / 12.0
Net Passing Yards 232.4 / 226.9 193.0 / 161.0
Rushing Yards 98.1 / 105.1 147.0 / 69.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.14
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 330.5 / 332.0 340.0 / 230.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.1 3.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 5.1 4.9 / 5.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
SF Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.0 ATS +/-: +3.6
SF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 14.5 ATS +/-: +9.5
⚖️ Over/Under
CAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +11.5
SF
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SF
CAR
SF
CAR
ML
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
TTL
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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