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MINNESOTA

VIKINGSMIN

4-6  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 1:00 PM ET
Lambeau Field
View Odds Details →

GREEN BAY

PACKERSGB

6-3-1  |  Home

23
Key Game
Will Reichard
KEY GAME

Will Reichard

#16 | Place kicker
@
Daniel Whelan
KEY GAME

Daniel Whelan

#19 | Punter
Player
Will Reichard None-None
Daniel Whelan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
VIKINGS
100%
📊
PACKERS
0%
VIKINGS --
PACKERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
GREEN BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Green Bay)
VikingsMIN (-3.5) 0 PackersGB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Vikings Cover

23.8%

Packers Cover

76.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around GB -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GB)

MIN By 1-6 points

10.7%

MIN By 7-13 points

7.3%

GB By 1-6 points

15.3%

GB By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
17
MINNESOTA
27
GREEN BAY
Simulated Score
21
MINNESOTA
24
GREEN BAY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Packers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Packers Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Packers (-6.5) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Packers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o41.5 Loss
Proj Total: 44.0
D
Sim u41.5 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 GB @ MIN 22 - 39
Jan 4, 2026 GB @ MIN 3 - 16
Nov 23, 2025 MIN @ GB 6 - 23
Dec 29, 2024 GB @ MIN 25 - 27
Sep 29, 2024 MIN @ GB 31 - 29
Key Model Drivers
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +22.0% more
Green Bay: 0.5 vs Minnesota: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +15.3% more
Green Bay: 19.7 vs Minnesota: 17.1
Net Passing Yards (L5) +13.6% more
Green Bay: 209.0 vs Minnesota: 184.0
Total Yards (L5) +10.5% more
Green Bay: 323.5 vs Minnesota: 292.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIN Score 17.0 6
GB Score 27.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 17.1 22.0 / 10.0
Net Passing Yards 209.0 / 184.0 142.0 / 52.0
Rushing Yards 114.5 / 108.7 146.0 / 93.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.22
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.62 / 0.38
Total Yards 323.5 / 292.6 288.0 / 145.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.9 0.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 5.1 4.4 / 3.3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
50%MONEY50%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIN Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
GB
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIN Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 8.8 ATS +/-: +7.0
GB
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: -10.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MIN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -9.0
GB
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GB
MIN
GB
MIN
ML
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-3-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
100% 4-0
TTL
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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