Home / NFL Projections NFL / Steelers @ Bears PIT @ CHI

PITTSBURGH

STEELERSPIT

6-4  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 1:00 PM ET
Soldier Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

BEARSCHI

7-3  |  Home

31
Key Game
Jaquan Brisker
KEY GAME

Jaquan Brisker

#3 | Safety
@
Tory Taylor
KEY GAME

Tory Taylor

#19 | Punter
Player
Jaquan Brisker None-None
Tory Taylor None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STEELERS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
STEELERS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Chicago)
SteelersPIT (-3.5) 0 BearsCHI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Steelers Cover

38.8%

Bears Cover

61.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CHI -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHI)

PIT By 1-6 points

14.7%

PIT By 7-13 points

12.1%

CHI By 1-6 points

17.0%

CHI By 7-13 points

18.0%

AI Model Projected Score
27
PITTSBURGH
31
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
20
PITTSBURGH
24
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (-2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o46.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
D
Sim u46.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 23, 2025 PIT @ CHI 28 - 31
Nov 8, 2021 CHI @ PIT 27 - 29
Sep 24, 2017 PIT @ CHI 17 - 23
Sep 22, 2013 CHI @ PIT 40 - 23
Sep 20, 2009 PIT @ CHI 14 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +83.5% more
Chicago: 165.3 vs Pittsburgh: 90.1
Total Yards (L5) +32.5% more
Chicago: 385.0 vs Pittsburgh: 290.5
First Downs (L5) +23.9% more
Chicago: 21.6 vs Pittsburgh: 17.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +10.4% more
Chicago: 5.7 vs Pittsburgh: 5.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PIT Score 27.0 28
CHI Score 31.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.6 / 17.5 19.0 / 22.0
Net Passing Yards 219.7 / 200.4 229.0 / 159.0
Rushing Yards 165.3 / 90.1 99.0 / 186.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.54 / 0.57
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.45 / 0.55
Total Yards 385.0 / 290.5 328.0 / 345.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 1.1 2.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.7 / 5.1 5.4 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PIT
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.5 ATS +/-: -2.9
CHI Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +9.9
⚖️ Over/Under
PIT
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.4
CHI
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHI
PIT
CHI
PIT
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
ATS
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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