Home / NFL Projections NFL / Colts @ Chiefs IND @ KC

INDIANAPOLIS

COLTSIND

8-2  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 1:00 PM ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

5-5  |  Home

23
Key Game
👤
KEY GAME

Derrick Nnadi

#92 | Defensive Tackle
@
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
Player
Derrick Nnadi None-None
Matt Araiza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COLTS
100%
📊
CHIEFS
0%
COLTS --
CHIEFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Kansas City)
ColtsIND (-3.5) 0 ChiefsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Colts Cover

41.5%

Chiefs Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KC -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

IND By 1-6 points

15.3%

IND By 7-13 points

12.9%

KC By 1-6 points

17.0%

KC By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
17
INDIANAPOLIS
20
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
31
INDIANAPOLIS
20
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Chiefs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Colts Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Chiefs (+3.5) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Colts (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u50.0 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u50.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 IND @ KC 30 - 33
Nov 23, 2025 IND @ KC 20 - 23
Sep 25, 2022 KC @ IND 17 - 20
Oct 6, 2019 IND @ KC 19 - 13
Jan 12, 2019 IND @ KC 13 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +57.3% more
Indianapolis: 2.2 vs Kansas City: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.7% more
Indianapolis: 181.8 vs Kansas City: 98.7
Total Yards (L5) +17.8% more
Indianapolis: 427.4 vs Kansas City: 351.5
Yards Per Play (L5) +15.0% more
Indianapolis: 6.5 vs Kansas City: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IND Score 17.0 20
KC Score 20.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.4 / 24.2 33.0 / 10.0
Net Passing Yards 252.8 / 245.6 346.0 / 181.0
Rushing Yards 98.7 / 181.8 148.0 / 74.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.44 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.63 / 0.37
Total Yards 351.5 / 427.4 494.0 / 255.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 2.2 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.5 / 6.5 5.4 / 5.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
48%TICKETS52%
32%MONEY68%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IND
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IND Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: -0.5 ATS +/-: +1.0
KC
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
IND
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
IND
KC
IND
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
ATS
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Week 5 Fantasy Football: Tight End Start/Sit — Ferguson, Gesicki…
usatoday 12 hours, 56 minutes ago
Brian Branch's Return to Practice Could Be the Spark Detroit's D…
yahoo 19 hours, 17 minutes ago
Auburn's Offensive Line Woes: Tigers Lead Nation in Sacks Allowe…
si 1 day ago
NFL Media Unanimously Backs 49ers as Top Team Despite Chiefs' Re…
yahoo 1 day ago
NFL Rescinds Kyle Juszczyk's Fine After Juice Celebration Mix-Up
nypost 1 day, 6 hours ago