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JACKSONVILLE

JAGUARSJAX

6-4  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 4:05 PM ET
State Farm Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARIZONA

CARDINALSARI

3-7  |  Home

24
Key Game
BJ Ojulari
KEY GAME

BJ Ojulari

#-- | Linebacker
@
Chad Ryland
KEY GAME

Chad Ryland

#38 | Place kicker
Player
BJ Ojulari None-None
Chad Ryland None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAGUARS
0%
📊
CARDINALS
100%
JAGUARS --
CARDINALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
74.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
JACKSONVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Jacksonville)
JaguarsJAX (-3.5) 0 CardinalsARI (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jaguars Cover

92.3%

Cardinals Cover

7.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around JAX -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JAX)

JAX By 1-6 points

8.6%

JAX By 7-13 points

15.4%

ARI By 1-6 points

4.2%

ARI By 7-13 points

2.1%

AI Model Projected Score
47
JACKSONVILLE
27
ARIZONA
Simulated Score
20
JACKSONVILLE
27
ARIZONA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Jaguars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cardinals Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Jaguars (+2.5) Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim Cardinals (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o47.5 Win
Proj Total: 74.0
D
Sim u47.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 23, 2025 JAX @ ARI 27 - 24
Sep 26, 2021 ARI @ JAX 31 - 19
Nov 26, 2017 JAX @ ARI 24 - 27
Nov 17, 2013 ARI @ JAX 27 - 14
Sep 20, 2009 ARI @ JAX 31 - 17
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +33.9% more
Jacksonville: 136.7 vs Arizona: 90.3
Net Passing Yards (L5) +68.4% more
Arizona: 297.3 vs Jacksonville: 176.5
Turnovers (L5) +67.9% more
Arizona: 1.8 vs Jacksonville: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +23.8% more
Arizona: 387.6 vs Jacksonville: 313.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JAX Score 47.0 27
ARI Score 27.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.3 / 23.8 25.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 297.3 / 176.5 271.0 / 237.0
Rushing Yards 90.3 / 136.7 55.0 / 134.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.31 / 0.27
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 387.6 / 313.2 326.0 / 371.0
Turnovers 1.8 / 1.1 0.0 / 4.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 4.7 4.3 / 6.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
33%MONEY67%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
ARI
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JAX Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.8 ATS +/-: +11.1
ARI
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.5 ATS +/-: -2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
JAX
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -7.1
ARI
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARI
JAX
ARI
JAX
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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