Home / NFL Projections NFL / Falcons @ Saints ATL @ NO

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

3-7  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Nov 23 • 4:25 PM ET
Caesars Superdome
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

SAINTSNO

2-8  |  Home

10
Key Game
LaCale London
KEY GAME

LaCale London

#94 | Defensive End
@
Jaylan Ford
KEY GAME

Jaylan Ford

#53 | Linebacker
Player
LaCale London None-None
Jaylan Ford None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
100%
📊
SAINTS
0%
FALCONS --
SAINTS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (New Orleans)
FalconsATL (-3.5) 0 SaintsNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

41.5%

Saints Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NO -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

ATL By 1-6 points

15.3%

ATL By 7-13 points

12.9%

NO By 1-6 points

17.0%

NO By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
17
ATLANTA
20
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
20
ATLANTA
23
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Saints Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Saints Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Saints (-1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Sim Saints (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u41.5 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u41.5 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 5, 2026 ATL @ NO 45 - 24
Jan 4, 2026 NO @ ATL 17 - 19
Nov 23, 2025 ATL @ NO 24 - 10
Nov 10, 2024 ATL @ NO 17 - 20
Sep 29, 2024 NO @ ATL 24 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +107.0% more
New Orleans: 1.9 vs Atlanta: 0.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +14.0% more
New Orleans: 0.4 vs Atlanta: 0.2
Net Passing Yards (L5) +8.6% more
New Orleans: 220.3 vs Atlanta: 202.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.7% more
Atlanta: 113.6 vs New Orleans: 84.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ATL Score 17.0 24
NO Score 20.0 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.7 / 20.3 21.0 / 13.0
Net Passing Yards 220.3 / 202.8 214.0 / 181.0
Rushing Yards 84.5 / 113.6 79.0 / 121.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.31 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 304.7 / 316.4 293.0 / 302.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 0.8 2.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.3 / 5.4 3.8 / 5.5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
63%MONEY37%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
NO
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
NO
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -5.8 ATS +/-: -3.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
NO
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +11.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
ATL
NO
ATL
ML
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
TTL
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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