Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bills @ Texans BUF @ HOU

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

7-3  |  Road

19
FINAL
Thu, Nov 20 • 8:15 PM ET
NRG Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

5-5  |  Home

23
Key Game
Ray Davis
KEY GAME

Ray Davis

#7 | Running Back
@
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Ray Davis None-None
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
0%
📊
TEXANS
100%
BILLS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Buffalo)
BillsBUF (-3.5) 0 TexansHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

88.8%

Texans Cover

11.2%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BUF -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1-6 points

10.7%

BUF By 7-13 points

17.5%

HOU By 1-6 points

5.9%

HOU By 7-13 points

3.2%

AI Model Projected Score
27
BUFFALO
10
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
20
BUFFALO
27
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bills Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bills (+5.5) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Texans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 37.0
D
Sim u44.5 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 BUF @ HOU 36 - 31
Nov 20, 2025 BUF @ HOU 19 - 23
Oct 6, 2024 BUF @ HOU 20 - 23
Oct 3, 2021 HOU @ BUF 0 - 40
Jan 4, 2020 BUF @ HOU 19 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +63.8% more
Buffalo: 2.0 vs Houston: 0.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +24.5% more
Buffalo: 6.6 vs Houston: 5.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +18.6% more
Buffalo: 125.2 vs Houston: 101.8
Total Yards (L5) +11.5% more
Buffalo: 390.2 vs Houston: 345.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 27.0 19
HOU Score 10.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.0 / 20.7 15.0 / 14.0
Net Passing Yards 243.7 / 265.0 153.0 / 183.0
Rushing Yards 101.8 / 125.2 108.0 / 143.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.17 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 345.5 / 390.2 261.0 / 326.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 2.0 0.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.0 / 6.6 4.7 / 4.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
87%MONEY13%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
54%MONEY46%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
BUF
HOU
BUF
ML
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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