Home / NBA Projections NBA / Nuggets @ Pelicans DEN @ NO

DENVER

NUGGETSDEN

10-3  |  Road

125
FINAL
Wed, Nov 19 • 8:00 PM ET
Smoothie King Center
View Odds Details →

NEW ORLEANS

PELICANSNO

2-12  |  Home

118
AI Model Win Probability
NUGGETS
100%
📊
PELICANS
0%
NUGGETS --
PELICANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
251.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW ORLEANS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New Orleans)
NuggetsDEN (-3.5) 0 PelicansNO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nuggets Cover

46.0%

Pelicans Cover

54.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NO -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NO)

DEN By 1-7 points

24.3%

DEN By 8-14 points

13.7%

NO By 1-7 points

26.2%

NO By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
125
DENVER
126
NEW ORLEANS
Simulated Score
109
DENVER
118
NEW ORLEANS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pelicans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Pelicans Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pelicans (+14) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
D
Sim Pelicans (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o234.0 Win
Proj Total: 251.0
D
Sim u234.0 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 13, 2026 DEN @ NO 122 - 116
Nov 19, 2025 DEN @ NO 125 - 118
Oct 29, 2025 NO @ DEN 88 - 122
Feb 5, 2025 NO @ DEN 119 - 144
Feb 3, 2025 NO @ DEN 113 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +71.8% more
New Orleans: 18.9 vs Denver: 11.0
Steals (L5) +28.0% more
New Orleans: 9.4 vs Denver: 7.3
Blocks (L5) +19.8% more
Denver: 4.2 vs New Orleans: 3.4
Rebounding (L5) +17.7% more
Denver: 47.4 vs New Orleans: 39.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DEN Score 125.0 125
NO Score 126.0 118
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.0 / 40.2 21.0 / 35.0
Assists 22.2 / 24.5 25.0 / 35.0
Blocks 3.4 / 4.2 5.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 48.8 45.0 / 55.0
Free Throw % 79.7 / 80.1 74.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 39.0 / 47.4 44.0 / 41.0
Steals 9.4 / 7.3 12.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 18.9 / 11.0 12.0 / 20.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DEN Advantage
56-32-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
NO
26-56-0 (31.7%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DEN
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
NO Advantage
45-36-1 (55.6%)
Margin: -4.5 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8% Total +/-: +3.4
NO
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NO
DEN
NO
DEN
ML
62% 98-61
54% 57-48
58% 48-35
55% 47-39
ATS
68% 107-51-1
63% 65-38-2
58% 48-35
55% 47-39
TTL
75% 119-40
54% 56-48-1
100% 83-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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