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SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

3-11  |  Road

99
FINAL
Wed, Nov 19 • 8:00 PM ET
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OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

14-1  |  Home

113
AI Model Win Probability
KINGS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
KINGS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
237.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (Oklahoma City)
KingsSAC (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kings Cover

9.7%

Thunder Cover

90.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

SAC By 1-7 points

6.8%

SAC By 8-14 points

1.7%

OKC By 1-7 points

18.6%

OKC By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
112
SACRAMENTO
125
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
116
SACRAMENTO
121
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+18.5) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o231.5 Loss
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Sim u231.5 Win
Proj Total: 237.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 19, 2025 SAC @ OKC 99 - 113
Nov 7, 2025 OKC @ SAC 132 - 101
Oct 28, 2025 SAC @ OKC 101 - 107
Mar 25, 2025 OKC @ SAC 121 - 105
Feb 1, 2025 SAC @ OKC 110 - 144
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +81.3% more
Oklahoma City: 5.2 vs Sacramento: 2.9
Steals (L5) +26.7% more
Oklahoma City: 11.0 vs Sacramento: 8.7
Free Throw % (L5) +12.4%
Oklahoma City: 82.2% vs Sacramento: 69.8%
Rebounding (L5) +11.2% more
Oklahoma City: 42.6 vs Sacramento: 38.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 112.0 99
OKC Score 125.0 113
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.4 / 36.4 26.0 / 29.0
Assists 27.0 / 26.5 22.0 / 21.0
Blocks 5.2 / 2.9 10.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 49.5 / 45.1 47.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 82.2 / 69.8 91.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 42.6 / 38.3 45.0 / 45.0
Steals 11.0 / 8.7 9.0 / 12.0
Turnovers 14.5 / 14.2 16.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
45%MONEY55%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
SAC
OKC
SAC
ML
70% 80-34
55% 55-45
48% 46-49
61% 50-32
ATS
73% 83-30-1
54% 52-45-3
48% 46-49
61% 50-32
TTL
67% 76-38
58% 57-42-1
100% 95-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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