ALABAMA STATE
HORNETSALST
2-2 | Road
64
AIR FORCE
FALCONSAF
0-4 | Home
66
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
FALCONS
100%
HORNETS
--
FALCONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
141.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
ALABAMA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Alabama State)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ALST -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALST)
ALST By 1-7 points
6.8%
ALST By 8-14 points
16.9%
AF By 1-7 points
1.4%
AF By 8-14 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Alabama State
81
ALABAMA STATE
Air Force
60
AIR FORCE
Simulated Score
Alabama State
68
ALABAMA STATE
Air Force
75
AIR FORCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hornets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Falcons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hornets (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Falcons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 141.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 19, 2025
ALST @ AF
64 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+27.9% more
Alabama State: 17.8
vs
Air Force: 12.8
Blocks (L5)
+22.9% more
Alabama State: 2.4
vs
Air Force: 1.9
Rebounding (L5)
+21.1% more
Alabama State: 41.0
vs
Air Force: 32.4
Steals (L5)
+14.1% more
Alabama State: 9.6
vs
Air Force: 8.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ALST Score
81.0
64
AF Score
60.0
66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
32.1 / 36.2
43.0 / 26.0
Assists
12.8 / 17.8
15.0 / 4.0
Blocks
1.9 / 2.4
4.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
41.4 / 42.1
50.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
60.6 / 56.6
65.0 / 79.0
Rebounding
32.4 / 41.0
33.0 / 24.0
Steals
8.3 / 9.6
4.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
15.1 / 11.7
17.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALST
Advantage
10-22-0
(31.3%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: -1.5
AF
3-29-0
(9.4%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALST
Advantage
13-18-0
(41.9%)
Margin: -4.1
ATS +/-: -1.5
AF
10-21-1
(32.3%)
Margin: -18.3
ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
ALST
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -1.6
AF
19-13-0
O: 59.4% / U: 40.6%
Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AF
ALST
AF
ALST
ML
81%
26-6
65%
20-11
62%
20-12
76%
19-6
ATS
69%
22-10
65%
20-11
62%
20-12
76%
19-6
TTL
69%
22-10
52%
16-15
100%
32-0
100%
25-0
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