Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Eagles @ Bulldogs FGCU @ SAM

FLORIDA GULF COAST

EAGLESFGCU

3-2  |  Road

77
FINAL
Wed, Nov 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Pete Hanna Center
View Odds Details →

SAMFORD

BULLDOGSSAM

3-3  |  Home

62
AI Model Win Probability
EAGLES
100%
📊
BULLDOGS
0%
EAGLES --
BULLDOGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
159.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
SAMFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Samford)
EaglesFGCU (-3.5) 0 BulldogsSAM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Eagles Cover

1.8%

Bulldogs Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAM -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAM)

FGCU By 1-7 points

1.4%

FGCU By 8-14 points

0.2%

SAM By 1-7 points

6.8%

SAM By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
69
FLORIDA GULF COAST
90
SAMFORD
Simulated Score
69
FLORIDA GULF COAST
78
SAMFORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bulldogs Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bulldogs (-5.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Bulldogs (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o153.5 Loss
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Sim u153.5 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 19, 2025 FGCU @ SAM 77 - 62
Key Model Drivers
Free Throw % (L5) +2.8%
Samford: 74.2% vs Florida Gulf Coast: 71.4%
Rebounding (L5) +12.8% more
Florida Gulf Coast: 42.8 vs Samford: 37.3
Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Florida Gulf Coast: 45.6% vs Samford: 42.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FGCU Score 69.0 77
SAM Score 90.0 62
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 35.1 / 34.4 27.0 / 44.0
Assists 16.1 / 16.0 11.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.6 / 2.7 4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal % 42.6 / 45.6 34.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 74.2 / 71.4 54.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 37.3 / 42.8 34.0 / 46.0
Steals 6.3 / 6.7 6.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 9.1 / 8.4 10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
7%MONEY93%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FGCU
16-18-0 (47.1%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
SAM Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FGCU
9-22-1 (29.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
SAM Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
FGCU
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: +1.3
SAM
18-11-1
O: 62.1% / U: 37.9% Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAM
FGCU
SAM
FGCU
ML
65% 20-11
58% 19-14
68% 21-10
67% 22-11
ATS
68% 21-10
61% 20-13
68% 21-10
67% 22-11
TTL
35% 11-20
61% 20-13
100% 31-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Nick Saban Declares Georgia the Most Complete Team in College Fo…
si 5 days, 12 hours ago
Iowa State's Two-Center Experiment: Will Buchanan and Pleta Shar…
iowastatedaily 1 week ago
Kirby Smart Stays Silent on Nate Frazier's Injury Status as Geor…
si 1 week, 3 days ago
Houston Cougars Survive Georgia Southern Scare: Offensive Firepo…
si 1 week, 4 days ago
Georgia Bulldogs Set to Clash with Oklahoma Sooners as Heavy Fav…
si 2 weeks, 2 days ago