Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Knights @ Fighting Irish BELL @ ND

BELLARMINE

KNIGHTSBELL

1-4  |  Road

79
FINAL
Wed, Nov 19 • 7:00 PM ET
Purcell Pavilion
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

FIGHTING IRISHND

4-1  |  Home

86
AI Model Win Probability
KNIGHTS
100%
📊
FIGHTING IRISH
0%
KNIGHTS --
FIGHTING IRISH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
146.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Notre Dame)
KnightsBELL (-3.5) 0 Fighting IrishND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Knights Cover

0.3%

Fighting Irish Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ND -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

BELL By 1-7 points

0.2%

BELL By 8-14 points

0.0%

ND By 1-7 points

1.7%

ND By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
59
BELLARMINE
87
NOTRE DAME
Simulated Score
62
BELLARMINE
78
NOTRE DAME
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Fighting Irish Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Irish Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fighting Irish (-25.5) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim Fighting Irish (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 146.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 19, 2025 BELL @ ND 79 - 86
Dec 23, 2020 BELL @ ND 70 - 81
Key Model Drivers
Rebounding (L5) +31.8% more
Notre Dame: 39.1 vs Bellarmine: 29.7
Turnovers (L5) +13.1% more
Notre Dame: 11.6 vs Bellarmine: 10.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +3.1%
Notre Dame: 34.8% vs Bellarmine: 31.7%
Steals (L5) +29.1% more
Bellarmine: 8.5 vs Notre Dame: 6.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BELL Score 59.0 79
ND Score 87.0 86
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.8 / 31.7 37.0 / 32.0
Assists 11.6 / 13.6 10.0 / 7.0
Blocks 1.4 / 1.6 1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 46.7 / 50.0 57.0 / 54.0
Free Throw % 68.2 / 77.0 72.0 / 81.0
Rebounding 39.1 / 29.7 31.0 / 17.0
Steals 6.0 / 8.5 3.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 11.6 / 10.3 14.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
34%MONEY66%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BELL
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
ND Advantage
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BELL Advantage
17-12-1 (58.6%)
Margin: -1.7 ATS +/-: +1.7
ND
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BELL
20-10-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +9.2
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
BELL
ND
BELL
ML
65% 20-11
72% 23-9
77% 24-7
94% 29-2
ATS
55% 17-14
72% 23-9
77% 24-7
94% 29-2
TTL
68% 21-10
50% 16-16
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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