UMBC
RETRIEVERSUMBC
3-2 | Road
52
GEORGE WASHINGTON
REVOLUTIONARIESGW
5-0 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
RETRIEVERS
100%
REVOLUTIONARIES
0%
RETRIEVERS
--
REVOLUTIONARIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
178.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (George Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GW -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GW)
UMBC By 1-7 points
2.7%
UMBC By 8-14 points
0.5%
GW By 1-7 points
10.7%
GW By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
UMBC
80
UMBC
George Washington
98
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
UMBC
68
UMBC
George Washington
72
GEORGE WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Revolutionaries
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Revolutionaries
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Revolutionaries (+22.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim
Revolutionaries (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o160.5
Loss
Proj Total: 178.0
D
Sim
u160.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 19, 2025
UMBC @ GW
52 - 89
Dec 7, 2020
GW @ UMBC
81 - 92
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+103.5% more
George Washington: 8.7
vs
UMBC: 4.3
Blocks (L5)
+51.1% more
George Washington: 2.8
vs
UMBC: 1.9
Assists (L5)
+23.4% more
George Washington: 15.3
vs
UMBC: 12.4
Rebounding (L5)
+9.7% more
George Washington: 39.3
vs
UMBC: 35.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UMBC Score
80.0
52
GW Score
98.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
34.5 / 34.8
48.0 / 22.0
Assists
15.3 / 12.4
18.0 / 13.0
Blocks
2.8 / 1.9
2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
50.3 / 45.9
54.0 / 33.0
Free Throw %
71.1 / 69.5
67.0 / 61.0
Rebounding
39.3 / 35.8
43.0 / 29.0
Steals
8.7 / 4.3
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 15.0
11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UMBC
Advantage
24-9-0
(72.7%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
GW
19-16-0
(54.3%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UMBC
Advantage
19-12-0
(61.3%)
Margin: 8.8
ATS +/-: +6.0
GW
15-18-0
(45.5%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UMBC
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -0.5
GW
15-18-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GW
UMBC
GW
UMBC
ML
63%
22-13
58%
18-13
60%
21-14
55%
17-14
ATS
69%
24-11
68%
21-10
60%
21-14
55%
17-14
TTL
60%
21-14
39%
12-19
100%
35-0
100%
31-0
