MAINE
BLACK BEARSME
0-5 | Road
65
MERRIMACK
WARRIORSMRMK
2-3 | Home
72
AI Model Win Probability
BLACK BEARS
0%
WARRIORS
100%
BLACK BEARS
--
WARRIORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
145.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
MAINE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Maine)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ME -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ME)
ME By 1-7 points
6.8%
ME By 8-14 points
16.9%
MRMK By 1-7 points
1.4%
MRMK By 8-14 points
0.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Maine
83
MAINE
Merrimack
62
MERRIMACK
Simulated Score
Maine
68
MAINE
Merrimack
72
MERRIMACK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Black Bears
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Warriors
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Black Bears (-6.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim
Warriors (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o130.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Sim
u130.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 19, 2025
ME @ MRMK
65 - 72
Nov 12, 2023
MRMK @ ME
71 - 65
Dec 11, 2022
ME @ MRMK
50 - 47
Dec 21, 2021
MRMK @ ME
49 - 47
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+46.3% more
Maine: 5.3
vs
Merrimack: 2.9
Steals (L5)
+11.8% more
Maine: 8.4
vs
Merrimack: 7.4
Free Throw % (L5)
+15.7%
Merrimack: 79.9%
vs
Maine: 64.2%
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+8.1%
Merrimack: 38.0%
vs
Maine: 29.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ME Score
83.0
65
MRMK Score
62.0
72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.0 / 29.9
27.0 / 27.0
Assists
12.6 / 12.3
13.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.9 / 5.3
2.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
40.9 / 41.3
47.0 / 47.0
Free Throw %
79.9 / 64.2
65.0 / 70.0
Rebounding
30.6 / 29.0
26.0 / 35.0
Steals
7.4 / 8.4
9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
12.5 / 12.4
10.0 / 17.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ME
8-24-0
(25.0%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -1.9
MRMK
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ME
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -5.9
ATS +/-: -1.9
MRMK
Advantage
19-14-1
(57.6%)
Margin: 2.1
ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ME
12-19-0
O: 38.7% / U: 61.3%
Total +/-: -2.8
MRMK
12-22-0
O: 35.3% / U: 64.7%
Total +/-: -3.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRMK
ME
MRMK
ME
ML
47%
16-18
45%
14-17
65%
22-12
52%
16-15
ATS
53%
18-16
55%
17-14
65%
22-12
52%
16-15
TTL
62%
21-13
55%
17-14
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
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