CHARLOTTE
HORNETSCHA
4-10 | Road
118
INDIANA
PACERSIND
1-13 | Home
127
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
0%
PACERS
100%
HORNETS
--
PACERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
230.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
CHARLOTTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (Charlotte)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around CHA -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHA)
CHA By 1-7 points
8.0%
CHA By 8-14 points
18.6%
IND By 1-7 points
1.7%
IND By 8-14 points
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Charlotte
125
CHARLOTTE
Indiana
105
INDIANA
Simulated Score
Charlotte
112
CHARLOTTE
Indiana
118
INDIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hornets
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pacers
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hornets (+2)
Loss
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Pacers (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u237.5
Loss
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Sim
u237.5
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
IND @ CHA
108 - 129
Feb 26, 2026
CHA @ IND
133 - 109
Jan 8, 2026
IND @ CHA
114 - 112
Nov 19, 2025
CHA @ IND
118 - 127
Apr 2, 2025
CHA @ IND
105 - 119
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+26.9% more
Charlotte: 5.9
vs
Indiana: 4.3
Steals (L5)
+22.6% more
Charlotte: 8.1
vs
Indiana: 6.3
Assists (L5)
+9.0% more
Charlotte: 23.2
vs
Indiana: 21.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+3.5%
Charlotte: 81.5%
vs
Indiana: 78.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHA Score
125.0
118
IND Score
105.0
127
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
29.8 / 33.0
42.0 / 29.0
Assists
21.1 / 23.2
32.0 / 28.0
Blocks
4.3 / 5.9
8.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
41.0 / 43.8
54.0 / 40.0
Free Throw %
78.0 / 81.5
83.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
41.5 / 44.2
43.0 / 48.0
Steals
6.3 / 8.1
5.0 / 7.0
Turnovers
16.1 / 15.6
16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHA
Advantage
45-39-0
(53.6%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
IND
19-63-0
(23.2%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHA
Advantage
50-34-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.4
ATS +/-: +4.4
IND
40-42-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -8.0
ATS +/-: -1.6
⚖️ Over/Under
CHA
32-52-0
O: 38.1% / U: 61.9%
Total +/-: -3.4
IND
41-41-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
IND
CHA
IND
CHA
ML
48%
47-50
61%
60-39
54%
45-38
48%
40-44
ATS
59%
57-40
60%
59-40
54%
45-38
48%
40-44
TTL
54%
52-45
58%
57-42
100%
83-0
100%
84-0
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